Gold prices spent the first week of 2024 above $2,000. But it has moved up and down as markets try to calibrate their expectations of how soon the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates based on economic data releases.
Analysts expect an increase in gold prices
cryptokoin.comAs you follow from , gold is consolidating above 2 thousand dollars. The latest Kitco Weekly Gold Survey shows that fully half of retail investors expect gains for gold next week. Two-thirds of market analysts take a bullish stance on the yellow metal’s near-term prospects. 9 Wall Street analysts voted in the Gold Survey this week. Analysts were more bullish than they have been in a while. Six experts (66%) expect gold prices to rise this week. Only one analyst (11%) predicts that prices will fall. The remaining two experts (22%) remained neutral on gold for this week.
Meanwhile, participants cast 301 votes in online surveys. For a change, market participants were more cautious than experts. 149 individual investors, representing 50%, expect gold to rise. Another 79 (26%) predict gold will fall. The remaining 73 (24%) remained neutral on the near-term prospects of the precious metal. The latest survey shows that retail investors expect gold prices to trade around $2,049.
James Stanley: Gold prices will retreat
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, thinks gold will experience a pullback this week. “We are at an important point of long-term resilience,” Stanley said. “And while I have no doubt that gold could surpass this at some point this year, I question the timing of this now that Core CPI is expected to be 4%,” he says.
Adrian Day: Gold has apparently shrugged it off
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, turned the short-term trend for gold prices upward. “The US employment report was a surprise for the market,” Day said. But gold has apparently shrugged it off. The Fed will not change direction again! “Maybe it will just move a little slower than the market previously optimistically thought.” says.
Sean Lusk: Gold prices will rise because…
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, believes the post-payrolls selloff and post-ISM rally are both related to adjusting expectations for a Fed rate cut. However, the simmering Middle East conflict is also supportive for gold prices. According to Lusk, if this continues then all bets are off. This will increase energy prices, the analyst says. He also predicts that gold and silver, which are fear indicators, will likely rise along with it. Based on this basis, the analyst makes the following comment:
I think gold would be preferred here either way. Because gold pulled back a bit last year as interest rates rose, but you still ended the year on a high note and made some really good gains. It rose nearly 15% and finished $250 higher. No bad. During this period of seasonal strength, between now and Valentine’s Day, I expect gold to reach $2,175.
Adam Button: Data indicates that gold will rise!
Adam Button, head of foreign exchange strategy at Forexlive.com, says seasonal data and recent employment data point to gold prices rising. However, he states that the reaction of the precious metal to the CPI will be important. The analyst warns that neither the markets nor the Fed can yet know exactly what the next interest rate move will be. Button also says there could be very soft inflation numbers by June or July. The analyst shares the following evaluations and predictions for gold prices:
I think what I took away from the gold market today is the Fed wants to see cuts. Gold market loves dovish data, hawkish data, gold sells, dovish data, gold rises. I think trading gold from here is that simple. (…) Everything is in line for gold right now. But now it’s time to shut up or stay silent. You need to break through $2,100, or really $2,080, at the monthly close for January. Otherwise, perhaps this will not happen. I can also see the dollar softening, so I’m definitely bullish now. I’ve been bullish on this all month. I think there’s a lot to like here.
Marc Chandler prefers to stay neutral, here’s why…
Bannockburn Global Forex General Manager Marc Chandler expects gold to remain flat. It also looks at the CPI report for direction. The analyst said, “In the coming days, the focus is shifting from employment to inflation. Headlines about the U.S. labor market appeared stronger than the details. As the dollar gave back its initial gains, gold prices caught a bid. Thus, it recovered from the $2.025 region. A move above $2,050 could retest $2,075. However, consolidation would be the most likely scenario in the coming days.” says.
3 predictions from 3 analysts for gold
Barchart.com Senior Market Analyst Darin Newsom predicts gold will gain. The analyst said, “Although the short-term trend of the February futures contract is downward, we can see that it completed a bullish outer range on Friday. “If so, this would suggest February gold could rise early this week and possibly test the previous high of $2,098.20.” says.
Mark Leibovit, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, also expects an upward move for gold prices.
According to Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff, gold prices will continue to trade in a range. Wyckoff said, “The charts generally maintain an upward trend. Therefore, it will be horizontal and wavy. But the rally in USDX and the rise in bond yields are making gold bulls wary,” he says.
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