What the alliance partners expect from Germany

Scholz remains vague, keeps options open – depending on how badly the German economy could be affected by sanctions or counter-reactions from Moscow. That may be enough to maintain the balance of interests in his coalition.

Berlin’s attitude is increasingly met with dismay abroad. What’s more, doubts are growing among allies about the German government’s foreign policy determination, and even about its reliability.

A stop for the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2? Let’s see, the German energy supply must not be endangered in any case.

Unlink Russia from the Swift international payment system? Better not, especially German companies would be affected.

Delivery of defense weapons? Under no circumstance. Germany will deliver at most 5,000 soldiers’ helmets, as Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) announced on Wednesday.

Germany’s indecisiveness has been criticized

At best contradictory signals, at worst sheer defensiveness – that is the picture Berlin is giving in the most difficult foreign policy situation since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Other European countries and the USA are looking increasingly at a loss and irritated at Berlin.

In Eastern Europe in particular, even government officials are surprisingly undiplomatic. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is not only worried about the situation in Ukraine itself, but above all about “the reactions of our neighbors in Germany in view of the threat from Russia”.

The Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks criticized that the German policy towards Russia “in no way meets” the requirements of NATO and the European Union. And Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who has now stressed that his country will not allow “any great power to impose any concessions on Ukraine,” has never hidden what he thinks of Nord Stream 2: nothing.

Brits are irritated

The British, in particular, are openly expressing their displeasure. Berlin and Paris have so far watered down the NATO response, Conservative MP Karl McCartney said in a Ukraine debate in the House of Commons this week.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat called on Secretary of State Liz Truss to talk to Germany about arms sales to Kiev. In reply, Truss seemed to agree: “All our allies need to step up their game. Britain supplies defensive weapons, supports Ukraine economically and trains the armed forces. All our allies must stand behind it.”

However, Prime Minister Boris Johnson also reminded MPs that, unlike Britain, Germany relies on Russian gas supplies. “They are in a different position than we are. Their sacrifice may be very great, but we must hope for the sake of peace that they are willing to make that sacrifice,” the Prime Minister said. Scholz made it very clear to him that Nord Stream 2 would not go into operation in the event of a Russian invasion.

>> Read here How Putin is challenging the West – and why he could be successful with it.

France is reluctant to openly criticize it, but is skeptical

In France, too, there is great concern that Berlin is being too soft on Moscow, not least because of energy policy interests. Above all, the German-Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 is viewed critically. A year ago, after the assassination attempt on Russian opposition figure Alexej Navalny, French Minister for Europe Clément Beaune said: “France has always had the greatest doubts about this project.” by Vladimir Putin”.

These days, however, Paris avoids open criticism. The French are even more bothered by the fact that Russia and the USA could decide on war and peace over the heads of the Europeans on the EU border than Berlin’s reticence. Macron sees the Ukraine conflict as further evidence of his demand for European sovereignty – and he needs German partners at his side for an effective crisis policy.

The Élysée Palace tries to understand in background talks. A senior Macron adviser said it was clear there would have to be a “massive response” should Russia attack Ukraine. However, it is not yet time to talk about the details of a catalog of sanctions and the role of Nord Stream 2.

Despite all the irritation, now is “simply not the time for Berlin and Paris to argue,” says Éric-André Martin, head of the Center for Franco-German Studies at the Paris think tank Ifri. With the revival of the Normandy format, Macron hopes for “a dynamic that the Europeans can use to influence”.

Nevertheless, the attitude of the new federal government and Chancellor Scholz towards Russia is seen as a test of the ally’s reliability. “France expects Germany to be willing to impose sanctions and would also accept sacrificing Nord Stream 2,” says Martin. The latest signals from Berlin indicated that – “but it was a painful process”.

The German refusal to supply arms to Ukraine continues to cause a certain concern in Paris, says Martin. This raises questions about how Berlin will react to future geopolitical crises in which partner countries are involved. According to information from Élysée circles, France can imagine supporting Ukraine with military equipment if a corresponding request is received from Kiev.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had also offered military support and immediately sent a frigate to the Black Sea. Official criticism of Germany cannot be heard in Madrid. “There may be differences in nuance due to a variety of reasons: historical, geographic, or all sorts of ties to Russia,” says the Spanish Foreign Ministry. Italy is similarly cautious. Probably also because a spicy conference call is said to have taken place this Wednesday. Participants: Putin and the heads of Italy’s major corporations. Although diplomats want the meeting to be understood as a “private initiative”, the meeting comes at a bad time for the government in Rome.

USA doubts the reliability of Berlin

President Joe Biden has been reluctant to openly criticize the federal government. But patience is waning – especially in the US Congress, and clear signals are also coming from the think tanks that are so influential in Washington. “The Biden government has made good relations with Berlin a priority,” says John Herbst, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, who now heads the Atlantic Council think tank’s Eurasia Center. “But neither Merkel nor Scholz gave Biden anything in return,” he notes. Dissatisfaction is increasing not only among the Republicans in Congress, but also among the Democrats. “We can live with the fact that Germany is holding back on arms deliveries. But it’s a disgrace that Germany wants to prevent others from doing so,” says Herbst.

“There is a kind of fatigue and helplessness on the US side,” agrees Constanze Stelzenmüller from the Brookings think tank in Washington. What is currently happening in Germany “appears incredibly provincial, narrow-minded and as if you didn’t hear the shot from abroad”.

With the announcement that it would finance half of a field hospital, Germany probably made a fool of itself: “Should anyone believe that this is a big gesture, then one would feel very alone here in Washington,” says Stelzenmüller.

Jeff Schott of the Petersen Institute in Washington warns: “Nord Stream 2 would also strengthen the dominant position of Gazprom, Russia’s monopoly exporter, in the European market and increase the risk of future market manipulation. The situation in Ukraine underscores the urgency of action on climate, energy security and foreign policy grounds.”

Benjamin L. Schmitt, an expert on Eastern Europe at Harvard University, says the devastating echo from the USA should deeply worry the traffic light coalition: “In Berlin, people should be seriously concerned that this ambiguous policy will lead to long-term image damage.”

Rachel Rizzo of the Atlantic Council takes a similar view: When the Biden government came into office, it had to make efforts to repair the transatlantic relationship. “Now it seems to be the other way around: It’s the Germans who have to take care of repair work.”

Tricky situation in Berlin

In terms of foreign policy, Germany is therefore in a delicate position. Should the impression arise that distant America is doing more to secure peace in Europe than the continent’s number one economic power, then Germany should reconsider its foreign policy.

“In this major crisis, Germany must not appear as an insecure cantonist. There is too much at stake for us,” says former top diplomat Peter Wittig. “The federal government must do everything possible to counter this perception.” The Russian troop deployment not only threatens Ukraine, but the European peace order as a whole. “The attempt to divide the world into spheres of influence of the great powers goes to the heart of European interests,” said Wittig, who served as German ambassador in Washington and London. It is therefore right to revive the Normandy format now and not just leave the talks with Russia to the Americans.

Whether Germany should deliver weapons – including defensive ones – to Ukraine requires complex considerations. There are good reasons to be cautious here, says Wittig. “But it is problematic to justify our rejection with one’s own past. Nobody in other countries believes that, it gives the impression that we are shirking our responsibility.”

By Moritz Koch, Gregor Waschinski, Carsten Volkery, Jens Münchrath, Katharina Kort, Christian Wermke and Sandra Louven.

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