Las Vegas Simone Severini’s career is a bit like that of the first quantum computers. The physicist matured for decades in research laboratories at universities, in Shanghai, Cambridge and California. He recently switched to the private sector.
As head of the quantum computing department at AWS, Amazon’s cloud subsidiary, he is now driving the commercialization of a technology that is likely to change the economy profoundly. After all, quantum computers should be able to solve problems in just a few years for which today’s computers would need hundreds of years.
According to its own statements, Google wants to build a functioning quantum computer before 2030, and IBM, Microsoft, AWS, Honeywell, Intel and a handful of start-ups, mostly spin-offs from technical universities, are also investing millions in the development of the new technology.
When asked when the big breakthrough could be expected, Severini shrugged his shoulders on the sidelines of an AWS developer conference in Las Vegas. Then he says: “Soon, I think.”
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A study by the consulting firm McKinsey suggests that three types of companies in particular should prepare for the new technology: companies that work with secret data, those that can gain a lot from technology, but also those that work in industries in which quantum computers are expected to be the first to establish themselves.
Companies with secret data
Quantum computers will in all probability be able to break today’s cryptography. Around 30 years ago, the American computer scientist Peter Shor wrote an algorithm for a quantum computer with which – to put it simply – encrypted data can be made readable. No computer is yet able to run the program, and it will probably stay that way until at least 2030.
Nevertheless, security specialists warn against the new technology. Quantum computing is a “devastating threat” to cybersecurity, writes Ali El Kaafarani, founder and CEO of the cryptography company PQ Shield, a spin-off from Oxford University, on request. Patient data, state secrets and business data could be stolen.
The AWS Quantum boss Severini is more relaxed. By the time quantum computers actually pose a threat to cryptography, encryption experts will have developed so-called “post-quantum” algorithms that enable security in the transition period, he says.
But that’s only partly true. After all, cyber criminals today could store encrypted data sets and decrypt them as soon as quantum computers are able to do so. This danger could only be averted if companies already encrypted their secret data with “post-quantum” cryptography. The American Department of Homeland Security advises against this. Companies should wait until new, secure standards have been implemented, it writes in a recently published information brochure.
As long as cryptographers argue about which encryption methods are best suited for the age of quantum computers, companies have little choice but to come up with a strategy to limit damage in the event of data theft.
Companies with great profit prospects
Experts expect that quantum computers will, among other things, help to better understand molecules. The chemical, medtech and pharmaceutical industries in particular should benefit from this in the long term. Quantum computers should also facilitate complex simulations, which simplifies optimization tasks. Banks and insurance companies, among others, but also other service companies can take advantage of this.
Companies that find out how the new technology can be used profitably should secure a competitive advantage – provided they are faster than their competition. The car manufacturers BMW and Volkswagen and a handful of major banks are therefore already testing the future technology today. Companies that want to do the same can access their first quantum computers via the cloud.
With Quantum Network, IBM was the first major company to offer such a service, and other manufacturers have since followed suit. At Amazon Braket, companies can test their ideas on different quantum computers at the same time. Because there are different designs, not all quantum computers work exactly the same, depending on the design, they can be optimized particularly well for certain operations.
However, Richard Molds, the product manager of Braket, warns on the sidelines of the AWS conference against expecting too much from the technology today. At the moment, normal computers are even faster and more efficient than the first quantum computers.
Many companies that test quantum technology are currently still doing this with conventional computers that simulate how quantum computers work. That can still make sense, after all, the companies are first of all about learning to use the new technology and developing new ideas.
Companies in “early adopter” industries
Just as digitization did not immediately gain acceptance in all industries, quantum computing is unlikely to spread equally quickly everywhere. So far, financial institutions have shown the greatest interest in the new technology. According to forecasts by the consulting firm McKinsey, more than a quarter of all tests carried out with quantum computers will be based on them by 2025.
Anyone who invests in a new technology at an early stage can, under certain circumstances, gain a head start. At the same time, these “early adopters” accept high costs, after all, quantum computing is a completely new type of information processing that has to be tried out by well-paid specialists.
Anyone who invests a lot early on does not necessarily have to benefit quickly or heavily. And whether quantum computing can actually be used profitably at some point is still unclear, despite the great hype surrounding the technology.
The AWS Quantum boss Severini therefore does not dare to predict which industry will find profitable applications first. Nevertheless, he suggests that he estimates the likelihood higher that quantum computers will lead to breakthroughs in physics and only later on Wall Street.
The best thing companies can do today to prepare for the age of quantum computers is to recruit specialists who have a good nose for new business opportunities in their industry and who also enjoy trying out a new type of technology.
This was confirmed by Erik Lucero, Head of Quantum Hardware Development at Google, in an online media talk in November. In practice, however, it will be difficult for companies to find and retain qualified workers, say industry insiders at the AWS developer conference. The few who are trained in the field now work at universities and in a handful of large companies.
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