Washington The Ukrainian counter-offensive is showing signs of success. But NATO is dampening expectations of a breakthrough in recapturing the territories occupied by Russia. “We have to be prepared for the fact that this offensive will be bloody and difficult,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a visit to Washington on Tuesday. The future of Western support for Ukraine is also likely to be the focus of the NATO summit in early July.
The longer the war goes on, the louder the calls for a diplomatic solution – at least in the US, the largest donor of military aid. Charles Kupchan, former European director on the White House National Security Council under former US President Barack Obama, is certain that the West will change its strategy by the end of the year at the latest and will have to call for a ceasefire more vigorously.
“Everyone wants to give the counter-offensive a chance. But in the coming months, the attitude will increasingly come to the fore: This is not a war that should last for years. We have to find a way to stop the killing,” says Kupchan, who is now a security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
So what could a peace solution look like, to what extent could Germany be a historical model? And how long will US aid to Ukraine be safe?
Read the full interview with Charles Kupchan here:
The war in Ukraine has now lasted almost 16 months. Has the West failed in its defense strategy?
So far, with the support of the West, Ukraine is doing an incredible job. It will probably recapture parts of its territories in the ongoing counter-offensive. But I do not believe that Ukraine can fully restore its territorial integrity on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table.
When the fighting season comes to an end, there will be a new stalemate. By then at the latest, the West must switch to a diplomatic strategy aimed at a ceasefire.
Ukraine is suffering from the fighting against the Russian occupiers, but wants to assert its territorial sovereignty.
(Photo: Reuters)
What can a peace solution look like?
The very first goal must be to end the war and stop the killing. We need a stable line of contact for troops to retreat to, and ideally the deployment of an international peacekeeping and surveillance force. Central would then be the start of talks about a new line of contact, what should happen with the parts occupied by Russia, also with Crimea or Donbass. These talks would probably last a very long time.
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It sounds as if Ukraine would have to give up territory, at least initially.
I do not recommend accepting that Russia can retain control of part of the territory. But I see the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty more as a long-term goal. It is unlikely to be enforceable as long as Vladimir Putin is in power in Russia. But I think it is conceivable that this goal will be realistic in the future.
There are historical analogies here, including with Germany, when half the country became part of the West, which was not an easy decision at the time. And now Germany is reunited. Or: The United States never recognized Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as part of the Soviet Union. Now they are independent countries in NATO.
What will be the biggest challenge of possible peace negotiations?
The West will have a hard time convincing Moscow and especially Kiev to go with diplomacy. Putin seems to think he can just sit out this war. Volodymyr Zelensky is aiming for full territorial sovereignty of his country and the complete withdrawal of the Russian armed forces and is supported by 90 percent of the population. Talks with the Ukrainians could therefore be the most difficult.
Charles Kupchan was the Europe Director on the White House National Security Council under former US President Barack Obama.
(Photo: Council on Foreign Relations)
Because the West doesn’t want to pressure Ukrainians into giving up any of their territory. You don’t want to give the impression that you’re rewarding Russia for its aggression.
Why would it be wrong to continue as before?
Trying to save Ukraine could destroy it. Because the longer this war lasts, the more it inflicts enormous damage on the country, and the population has shrunk by a third. It is causing global disruption, energy and food shortages, and unrest in parts of the Third World. He is polarizing the international system by turning the US and its allies against Russia and China while the rest of the world refuses to take sides.
Besides, this war could escalate at any time. We’ve seen some pretty scary moments: missiles fell on Polish territory, Russian fighter jets shot down a US drone over the Black Sea, drones exploded over the Kremlin or hit residential areas in Moscow. It is now time to prepare a plan B that will end this war sooner rather than later.
How long is US military aid guaranteed?
We cannot expect Western support to continue at current levels. In the US, public opinion is gradually changing. And when it comes to providing ammunition, air defense or tanks, we reach our limits, even though we produce at the highest level.
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We must be prepared for current support to diminish over time. Either due to political circumstances that make it more difficult for US President Joe Biden to push through his ideas. Or because we simply cannot keep up with the demand for material.
The funds from the USA will probably last until late summer. Then Biden must request more money from a divided Congress. By the 2024 election year at the latest, Biden will come under pressure to push harder for a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution.
When you were in the White House, the Minsk II agreement was being negotiated. Did you believe at the time that Ukraine would ever be invaded?
I’ve always thought of Putin as strategic and calculating, a troublemaker who picks battles to win. He took “small bites”: from Crimea, a piece of Donbass, he placed troops in Syria or in Libya.
But I didn’t think it was possible that he would try to take over a country with 40 million inhabitants. It is a catastrophe, and indeed a strategic setback for Russia. It will take generations for the country to recover from this.
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