Crypto analyst Akash Girimath says that the Bitcoin price outlook on the weekly chart hasn’t changed much. BTC is still trying to find a stable level of support for a recovery rally. However, the analyst’s Bitcoin prediction is that things will only get worse if sellers subvert the next accumulation zone.
Bitcoin prediction: Bull recovery still in the cards!
cryptocoin.comAs you follow, BTC gave its holders about 90% gain in the 2023 rally. However, it continues to maintain its bullish outlook. On the weekly chart, BTC is stuck between a ‘Bearish Breaker’ stretching from $29,247 to $41,273 and the Fair Value Gap (FVG) stretching from $22,591 to $26.591. Interestingly, FVG has two stable support levels at $24,300 and $25,205. This, in turn, will serve as a backlog for buyers on the edge.
Bitcoin price is likely to bounce off the aforementioned FVG. However, traders need to wait for confirmation on lower timeframes such as the daily or four-hour charts. The resulting bounce will create a lower bottom. It will also potentially start a rally that tags the midpoint of the weekly Bearish Breaker at $35,260.
Although unlikely, a sustained bullish momentum or spike could prolong this bullish trend. Thus, it is possible for Bitcoin price to push the breaker to tag its upper limit at $41,273. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator are above their respective average levels. This indicates that the bullish momentum is deteriorating. This is not good news for bulls waiting for a rally. However, it doesn’t serve the bears either, as they patiently await further collapses.
What do on-chain metrics show for BTC?
The detailed view described above is purely speculation based on key Bitcoin price levels. However, on-chain metrics add nuance to understanding investor sentiment. The 30-day Market Cap – Realized Value (MVRV) model shows that BTC has not bottomed yet.
This indicator is used to determine the average profit/loss of traders who bought BTC in the past year. According to Santiment’s research, a value below -10% indicates that short-term holders are at a loss. So it’s considered a sign that they’re probably going to sell. Often, this is also where long-term holders save. Therefore, any movement below -10% is called the “zone of opportunity”. In the chart below, Bitcoin price triggered a reversal when the 30-day MVRV labeled the -10% and -18% levels. However, MVRV is currently hovering around -4.12%. This indicates that more corrective waves are likely to emerge soon.
Moreover, the decline in Active Addresses after April 2023 is significant. This metric has dropped from 306 billion to 160 billion, showing that there aren’t many active users. This indicator should be taken with a grain of salt as blockchain technology matures and new uses or use cases emerge that could reduce the number of active addresses as investors accumulate. So this measurement is not a perfect measurement. But it does show that speculation using the Bitcoin network has decreased significantly.
As a result, this bullish argument will be invalidated if Bitcoin price drops and turns the $22,591 support barrier into a resistance level. In such a case, BTC is likely to decline to $ 15,487 on November 7.
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