“Finland was not neutral for ideological reasons, but out of necessity.”
(Photo: dpa)
The former prime minister and former foreign minister of Finland, Alexander Stubb, has announced that his country will soon become a member of NATO. “We are ready to join tomorrow,” said Stubb in the Handelsblatt interview. Ever since the end of the Cold War, it has been Finland’s defense strategy to be able to become a NATO member immediately in case of doubt. The country’s defense sector was therefore built to be as NATO-compatible as possible.
But it will still take a few months: he expects Finland to join NATO by the end of this year or the beginning of next year at the latest, said Stubb.
According to Stubb, Finland expects that Russia will react to NATO accession with three types of intimidation: “cyber threats, threats in the form of disinformation and hybrid threats, so a mixture of both,” he explained. However, the conservative politician does not anticipate a conventional threat such as a military attack.
When it comes to cyber defence, Finland is well positioned. “We just had a simulation game with the Americans and beat them in it,” Stubb said.
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Read the entire interview here:
Mr. Stubb, this week Finland and Sweden will probably decide whether they want to join NATO. How long will it take before they will be members of the defense alliance: weeks, months or years?
Hopefully it will be quick. I expect that the two countries will be members by the end of this year or early next year at the latest.
Experts say that the strategy of Finnish defense policy has always been to join NATO immediately if the situation arises. Accordingly, all preparations have already been made and only signatures are missing. Is that correct?
Yes, basically it really is. Our strategy over the past 30 years has always been to make our defense sector as NATO-compatible as possible. That is why we have purchased the appropriate types of combat aircraft. That’s why we bought the appropriate missile defense systems. That’s why we often trained together with NATO. That’s why we took part in all NATO operations in Afghanistan. We have one of the largest armies in Europe: 900,000 reserve forces, 280,000 of which we can mobilize in a few days. We are more NATO compatible than most NATO countries.
Does that mean immediate accession would be possible?
Joining NATO is not like joining the EU, where you have to fulfill 100,000 pages of conditions beforehand, let’s just put it as an example. With NATO it’s just a few things. But to stay with the EU example: out of 100,000 pages of conditions, we fulfill 99,999. So yes: we are ready to join tomorrow.
How do you think Russia would react if Finland joined NATO?
We anticipate three types of threats or intimidation: cyber threats, disinformation threats, and hybrid threats, which is a mix of the two.
What might such a disinformation campaign look like?
The Russians could call Finland a Nazi country. But we don’t care, because lies about us Finns are already circulating in Russia. Counterfactual information about Finnish troop movements is more dangerous. Unfortunately, the Russians are very good at spreading such things in a targeted manner. In addition, false information about Finland’s NATO accession would be spread in other non-NATO countries in order to sow skepticism about the defense alliance among the population and thus prevent NATO expansion.
>> Read here: Medvedev warns Finland and Sweden: “Non-nuclear status of the Baltic States” ends when they join NATO
Cyber attacks, which Finland also fears, can paralyze an entire country.
When Zelensky spoke in front of the Finnish Parliament, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense were attacked and down. And then our airspace was violated. There could also be such cyber attacks on the banking sector or the energy supply. But we have one of the strongest cyber defenses in the world. We just had a simulation game with the Americans and beat them in it.
Do you also expect conventional military threats?
No, rather not. But of course we are prepared for that.
Speaking of conventional warfare: there are estimates that the Russians also see nuclear weapons as part of such warfare. Do you think Russian President Vladimir Putin could use them in the Ukraine war?
No no no. Putin is many things, but not suicidal. The Russian army is not suicidal either. The Russians know that NATO would then probably interfere. And if the Russian army can’t even hold its own against a small Ukrainian army, what can it do against NATO? Of course we have to keep in mind the threat of nuclear war, but it is very, very unlikely that it will happen.
Let’s take a look at the Republic of Moldova: The small Ukrainian border state is also not a NATO member and fears that it will be Putin’s next target. Does this show that strategic neutrality in foreign and defense policy no longer protects a country?
Neutrality worked for some states during the Cold War – to stave off escalation. Finland was not neutral for ideological reasons, but out of necessity. This is how we were able to keep the Soviet Union away from us. Sweden, Ireland and Switzerland are neutral for ideological reasons, but of course the question now arises: if we have a new Iron Curtain in Europe, can one still be neutral? Of course, each country has to decide that for itself, but I think it’s difficult to be neutral when it doesn’t serve its purpose.
Mr. Stubb, thank you very much for the interview.
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