Vienna It is remarkable that Russia is not reporting any land gains in Ukraine, as it is doing these days. After all, the Kremlin usually portrays the invasion as one ongoing success story. That Russian President Vladimir Putin, now having taken the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk, ordered his soldiers to “rest and increase their combat capability” is a clear admission by Russian standards big losses.
Military experts assume that it will take a few days for the troops in the conquered areas to clear the mines and duds and dug into their new positions.
The most extensive withdrawal from Luhansk is a severe defeat for Ukraine, especially since it once again strengthened its troops in the western part of the province at the beginning of June. Nevertheless, she had to retreat from Russia’s artillery with great losses.
However, this is not a military catastrophe: due to their lack of troops, the Russians never managed to encircle a significant number of Ukrainian soldiers in the fighting. The current gains in territory are also extremely small: in two months, the Russian armed forces advanced just 30 kilometers.
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But the relative standstill at the front is only the calm before the next storm. There can be no talk of a silence of the guns: Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in particular, but also Kharkiv, have been under heavy artillery and rocket fire from the Russians in the past few days.
Ukrainian troops fall back
Kiev’s troops are now falling back to the next line of defense, which runs past Siversk between the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. Although the details of the fortifications are unknown, the area, which was already hotly contested during the first Russian raid in 2014, is considered to be heavily militarized. According to the Financial Times newspaper, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are stationed here.
The bombardments of the past few days and the high priority that the Kremlin gives to conquering the entire Donbass show that Russia sees its next targets here. The Ukrainian governor of Donetsk called on the population to evacuate as the region was becoming a theater of war. The front has now moved a good 15 kilometers to Sloviansk.
Even if Russia were to advance at the current rate, it would take weeks or even months to conquer the region. The claim by Russian military strategists that the stage victory even clears the way to the more northerly city of Kharkiv is wishful thinking given past setbacks for the Russians in the Northeast.
A rapid Russian advance in the Donbass is unlikely.
(Photo: AP)
An open question, however, is which side has suffered more in the war of attrition. Both have suffered thousands of casualties in recent weeks, many of them among their best troops. The Russians therefore resort to forced conscripts from the self-proclaimed Donbass “people’s republics”, reservists and mercenaries, who are paid a lot of money for the war effort.
The Ukrainians deployed many poorly trained and poorly equipped Landwehr units in Lysychansk, whose morale was not at its best. Volunteers from home and abroad also fight alongside them, most of whom cannot compete with experienced soldiers either.
Ukrainian army is waiting for weapons from the west
The answer to this question is relevant to assessing how successful possible counterattacks could be on those sections of the front where the Russians are less strongly positioned.
In the southern regions of Cherson and Zaporizhia, the Ukrainians have selectively gained territory, but at the same time are dampening expectations of a major offensive to recapture occupied areas. This could probably only take place when new troops are trained and modern weapon systems from the West are deployed in large numbers.
In addition, the cautious approach taken by the Ukrainians in the strategically important, Russian-occupied city of Cherson shows that, unlike Moscow, Kyiv cannot afford a strategy of mercilessly destroying towns and villages because it is their own population. Instead, the Ukrainians are relying on attacks against collaborators and the destruction of Russian military installations.
More Handelsblatt articles on the situation in Donbass
The new Western multiple rocket launchers and howitzers now allow them to attack targets dozens of kilometers behind the front lines on Ukrainian territory. Since the beginning of July alone, the BBC has counted eleven attacks on bases and weapons depots, some of which were devastating.
The Ukrainian army is dependent on Western arms supplies.
(Photo: AP)
The further course of the war thus decides who can better compensate for the personnel and material losses. While both sides have large deficits in armored vehicles, Russian artillery superiority remains overwhelming – despite shortages in shells and precision weapons.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is running out of ammunition for its guns based on Soviet standards. The conversion to western weapons has only just begun. It is also dependent on continued political will to deliver, which is by no means guaranteed as the war progresses.
No side is lacking in determination to continue this: The influential secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, reaffirmed the goal of “denazification” and “demilitarization” of the entire neighboring country on Tuesday. Ukrainians know they are fighting for their homeland – and what to expect from the Russians if they lose.
More: Putin’s new self-confidence: Three reasons why the Kremlin boss is currently confident of victory