War fatigue is likely to set in faster in the West than in Russia.
(Photo: AP)
Vladimir Putin cannot win the war in Ukraine – but he will not lose it either. The Russian attackers and Ukrainian defenders fought positional battles for towns in the east of the country, and there have recently been no major gains in terrain. Both sides are exhausted after eleven months of war.
But what if Putin endures the stalemate longer than Ukraine and its Western backers? This concern is reluctant to be voiced, but anyone who asks around in Brussels quickly senses how much it concerns the leaders of the EU and NATO. That is why the delivery of western main battle tanks is now being prepared. The taboo falls in the hope that increasingly heavier Western weapons will turn the tide.
“We must not underestimate Russia,” warns NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with the Handelsblatt. Putin compensates for the poor morale and lack of equipment of the Russian troops by constantly sending new forces to the front.
He mobilized 200,000 soldiers last fall, and more are likely to follow. He’s not bothered by scruples about using them as cannon fodder. The Kremlin has drummed into large parts of the Russian population that their motherland is fighting a war of existence against the “collective West”.
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With such propaganda, Putin strengthens the Russian population’s willingness to suffer. There are no signs that international isolation or the decline of the Russian economy could trigger unrest or even threaten Putin’s power.
In Europe, the front is still holding
War fatigue is likely to set in faster in the West than in Russia. The mild winter is helping the Europeans: the disaster scenario of power outages and production shutdowns has not materialized, nor have the feared mass protests. But the real stress test is yet to come – the coming winter, for which Europe can no longer prepare itself by bulk purchases of Russian natural gas.
Every week, Moritz Koch, head of the Handelsblatt office in Brussels, analyzes trends and conflicts, regulatory projects and strategic concepts from the inner workings of the EU, alternating with other Brussels correspondents. Because anyone interested in business needs to know what’s going on in Brussels. You can reach him at: [email protected]
The longer the war lasts, the more difficult it will be for the western allies to support Ukraine with programs worth billions. This is already becoming clear in the United States: the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives includes Trumpists who want to reduce arms and financial aid to Kyiv. Sections of the right-wing spectrum in America openly sympathize with Putin. In Europe, the front is still largely holding. Just how long?
Brussels diplomats fear that Putin is preparing a new offensive. From the north, east and south, similar to last year, but this time not headless, but calculated. The Ukrainian army is already being forced to reinforce defense lines – and thus thin out its forces in the east.
The fear of escalation has long stood in the way of deliveries of western main battle tanks. In Brussels, she is now stepping back behind another fear: if Putin still achieves his minimum goal – the dismantling of Ukraine – then the lesson for despots all over the world will be: aggression brings glory, it pays off.
Western main battle tanks could help Ukraine thwart Putin’s plans for conquest, they are clearly superior to the Russian models. Even Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who does not want to deliver more than is necessary, will no longer be able to evade this logic. Ukraine must be able to reclaim its lost territory because Putin must fail to keep Europe safe.
More: Germany prepares to deliver Leopard to Ukraine