Brussels One name dominates the last few days before the Christmas break in Brussels: Viktor Orban. The Hungarian Prime Minister is currently slowing down all projects that are to be pushed forward in the European Union. He wants to force the EU to release frozen billions for Hungary. The EU Commission wants to withhold the funds until Orban fully implements his promises to uphold the rule of law.
At the meeting of the 27 EU finance ministers this week, Hungary prevented EU aid worth €18 billion from being approved for Ukraine. The global minimum tax could not be decided again because Orban threatened to veto it.
The situation escalated further on Wednesday: At a meeting of the EU ambassadors, the Hungarian representative spoke out against the planned ninth package of sanctions against Russia. Orban also only wants to approve Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership in the new year – if he has gotten his way by then.
The EU partners have long since gotten used to the fact that Orban will not shy away from any means. The autocrat of Budapest, who has been in power since 2010, regularly uses his veto to gain an advantage elsewhere.
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But the current total blockade has stunned even experienced diplomats. Anger is growing in the Council of Member States. In particular, the rejection of aid to Ukraine means that the tone is becoming increasingly aggressive. Even the other Eastern Europeans are now distancing themselves from Orban.
The dispute is about a total of 13.3 billion euros. The EU Commission had frozen 7.5 billion euros in funding in the summer because, in their view, Orban is patronizing the judiciary and promoting corruption in the country. Under the so-called rule of law mechanism, the Brussels authorities can cut funds from a country if it violates the values of the Union.
In addition, the EU is still holding back 5.8 billion euros in corona aid to Hungary. These can only flow once the Council of Member States has approved Hungary’s national development plan. The Commission recently recommended accepting the plan, but linked the payment of the money to the achievement of 27 reform goals.
Orban is now increasing the pressure because he is running out of time. The development plan must be approved by the EU by the end of the year, otherwise the 5.8 billion euros will be forfeited. The head of government cannot afford that in view of the severe economic crisis in the country. Inflation is around 20 percent.
Orban must lift the petrol price cap
Orban suffered another setback this week when he had to lift the petrol price cap. After the EU oil embargo against Russia came into effect at the beginning of the week, the state-owned Hungarian oil company MOL announced that it would no longer be able to serve customers if the price cap remained.
Since Wednesday, petrol has been sold again at the market price. The Hungarians probably saw the end of the price cap coming and filled up again last week. As a result, a quarter of the gas stations in the country ran dry.
Orban promptly blamed the EU sanctions for the rising prices. Russian pipeline gas flowing to Hungary is exempt from the embargo. The reason for the scarcity is different. According to government information, the price cap has led to excessive demand for petrol. This year MOL sold 2.2 billion liters of fuel – last year it was only 1.5 billion.
In view of the bleak economic situation, Orban can hardly afford to jeopardize EU corona aid. From this, the European partners draw the hope that before the EU summit next week it will heave around and give up its destructive course. In Brussels, the Hungarian is seen as someone who knows exactly how far he can push his hand – and when the time has come to give in.
Reassessment of the reforms should bring a solution
Despite his polemical criticism of the EU sanctions, which he has held responsible for the domestic economic crisis for months, Orban always supported the measures in the end. That will also happen this time, according to Brussels. The Commission wants to present the ninth package next week. It is said to include further sanctions against Russian banks and export bans on certain technology products.
The EU ambassadors will spend the coming days trying to find a compromise with Orban. At the urging of Germany and other states, the commission was commissioned to once again assess the progress made in Hungary’s reforms. At the end of November, she came to the conclusion that the anti-corruption measures were not yet sufficient and that the funds would remain blocked.
The most recent laws should now also be taken into account in the reassessment. This could lead to the council deciding to give the green light to Hungary’s Corona recovery plan after all. Orban would still have the prospect of the EU billions in the new year as long as he meets the reform requirements. And he could end his blockade.
More: The first assessment of the Hungarian reforms is negative.