Will Republicans win a majority in one or both houses of the US Congress? Or will Joe Biden’s Democrats create a sensation? If not, the president will have to prepare for a particularly tough second half of his term.
According to the polls, the following could well be the case: Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives and Democrats defend their majority in the Senate. That would be good news for Joe Biden, because the president’s party usually loses seats in both chambers in the midterms. It would still be uncomfortable for Biden.
The Republicans are threatening various investigations against Democrats or even impeachment proceedings against members of the Biden cabinet. Lawyer Gregory Magarian from Washington University in St. Louis says that many in the party want “revenge” for the actions against former Republican President Donald Trump: There were two impeachment proceedings against him, and a committee of inquiry is investigating his role in the attack to the US Capitol. The goal of some Republicans is now to make life difficult for Biden and his government in return.
Above all, with this outcome, the President would no longer be able to get any major legislative projects through Congress – “because the Republicans don’t give him any success and don’t want him to improve his balance sheet,” says Johannes Thimm, US expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. This could also have consequences far beyond the United States, because the Republicans could also block or slow down aid to Ukraine, which must be approved by Congress. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who aspires to be president of the chamber, has threatened to do just that, arguing that in the midst of a recession the US cannot issue a “blank check” to Ukraine. However, experts suspect that McCarthy is trying to build up pressure.
The theoretical other variant, that the Democrats could keep their majority in the House of Representatives and the Republicans could get the majority in the Senate, is considered very unlikely.
A majority for Republicans in both houses
Should the Republicans win a majority in both chambers, it would be bitter for Biden. “Then he has three problems,” says Thimm: “He can no longer get any laws passed, has to deal with investigations and can no longer get nominations in the Senate.” beeing confirmed. The appointment of judges is particularly important: “Both parties have made that a priority, because that’s where the battles over the country’s political future are being fought,” says Thimm.
If the Democrats also lose their wafer-thin majority in the Senate, many things would come to a standstill. “That would initially mean a blockade and an inability to reform,” explains Thimm, but emphasizes: “Biden then remains executive governing: by decree, by order, by regulation by subordinate authorities. There is still a lot that can be done.” However, Biden already used many of these powers at the beginning of his presidency. The question therefore arises as to whether he could initiate even larger projects in this way.
In this scenario, Republicans could launch investigations against Democrats in both chambers of Congress and also initiate legislative initiatives at will, such as a national law restricting abortion. Much of that would fizzle out because the President could veto it and Republicans couldn’t see a two-thirds majority to override a veto. It would still be difficult for Biden. “The second half of his presidency would be purely defensive,” says Magarian. “He would essentially be sitting at his desk and fending off political threats.” It is questionable whether Biden would have a good chance of a second term from this position – and as the oldest president of all time.
A majority for Democrats in both chambers
Biden’s Democrats currently have a narrow majority in both houses of Congress, and a razor-thin majority in the Senate. They occupy 48 of the 100 seats there, and two independents almost always vote with them. They only get a majority through the vote of US Vice President Kamala Harris, who is also President of the Senate and can vote in a stalemate. If it stayed that way, it would be a real sensation for Biden – given the usual losses for the president in the “midterms”.
That would mean Biden could continue as before. However, the past two years have shown that this is not always easy. “Even with simple majorities, Biden cannot rule through,” says Thimm. Two party colleagues in particular made life difficult for Biden in the Senate: Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema blocked various of his projects – including a huge investment program for climate and social affairs that Biden had targeted as a legacy of his presidency. In the end he was only able to push through parts of it.
If the Democrats could possibly expand their majority in the Senate, which the polls don’t look like, then new opportunities would open up for them. “If the Democrats win a seat, they won’t have to worry too much about Manchin,” Magarian said. “If the Democrats gain two seats, they won’t have much to worry about either Manchin or Sinema.” That would give Biden dramatically more leeway. He could still push through previously blocked projects and possibly overturn the age-old filibuster rule in the Senate in order to bring initiatives to a vote that Republicans vehemently block. In one word, for Biden, that would mean one thing, says Magarian: “Hallelujah.”