Vladimir Putin is a master of modern communication because he knows that effective messages have a hidden and a public component. We don’t have to rely on security analysts to find out what’s happening in Ukraine. We see the videos of troop movements and the satellite images on Twitter. The Russian President wants us to see that.
There is of course also private information, things that Putin doesn’t want to tell us, like the day he will start the invasion. The Kremlinologists don’t know. Beware of people who claim to know what Putin is thinking; that he is afraid of democracy in neighboring countries; that he only cares about money; that he never attacks in winter, and never during the Olympic Games.
What we do know is how he communicates. Putin is a master of public and private information. He reveals and conceals. The West is playing the old-fashioned game: making vague threats, announcing red lines, holding countless bilateral meetings, and wasting time at places like Davos and the Munich Security Conference.
There is an analogy to Putin’s communication strategy from the world of cryptography, which was revolutionized in the 1970s with the introduction of the asymmetric cryptosystem. To send a message, you need a public and a private key. This clever combination is the secret of effective messaging. And it also applies to political communication.
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I’m pretty sure Putin knows how to interpret Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s silence, who couldn’t even bring himself to mention the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline when he stood next to US President Joe Biden last week. Putin can see that the West doesn’t have a unified message because it doesn’t agree. That’s the problem we need to solve first.
West must present sanctions transparently
The biggest mistake we can make as observers right now is to underestimate Putin. He’s old-fashioned but cutting-edge in his strategy games. Do we even have a strategy for a cyber war? Do we even have the ability to hack Russian military communications infrastructure? Is the EU able to cut off foreign countries from euro transactions?
Putin is a master of public and private information.
(Photo: imago images/ITAR-TASS)
Putin has been preparing for this moment for many years by reducing his economic dependence on dollar markets. Military rearmament was only the very last step.
The most effective action the West could take at this point, on the eve of a possible war, would be to be transparent about the sanctions we are about to impose.
When faced with a maximum military threat, we should respond with a maximum economic threat: cut off Russia from the dollar and euro markets.
Read more: “We know what has to be done” – Olaf Scholz avoids clear announcements in Kiev
There are several ways to do this, of which exclusion from the Swift payment system may not even be the most effective. We should impose sanctions on people and companies doing business with Russia.
That would include the likes of ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the EU energy companies invested in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. By putting that on the table in advance, there’s a good chance we can prevent an invasion.
Find a way to cooperate with Russia
Alongside this public message, there should be another public message: if Putin steps down, we would have serious talks with Russia about arms and troop reductions.
There are scenarios where gas could flow through Nord Stream 2. Our problem is not a pipeline, but the way Russia is using Europe’s over-reliance on Russian gas to harm Ukraine.
We should also signal that we should consider Russia as a partner. The Arctic is becoming an increasingly important region for the US and EU. In the long run, we need to find a way to work with Russia. The country is not the enemy.
So what prevents us from responding effectively? I think the most important obstacle is the lack of confrontation between NATO and the Federal Republic. Germany’s role is rightly being put to the test.
US newspapers are beginning to write about the role of Schröder and other high-ranking SPD politicians in Putin’s pocket. Germany will never comply with the assistance clause under Article 5 of the NATO treaty if Russia is involved. The article states that an armed attack against a NATO country is seen as an attack against all partners. And Germany will never accept sanctions that would jeopardize its policy of maintaining export surpluses.
Putin is winning because he has prepared for this situation while the West is reacting frantically. If he invades, we can rest assured that we will respond with ineffective sanctions, strategy papers, panels and high-level meetings.
The author is director of www.eurointelligence.com
More: “Like David against Goliath” – Europe’s unequal fight against Russian disinformation