According to the researchers, contact-intensive services cannot be expanded due to Corona.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin According to the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), the upswing is noticeably losing momentum in view of the delivery bottlenecks and increasing corona infections. The DIW economic barometer for the current fourth quarter dropped by six to 101 points compared to the summer, as the Berlin researchers announced on Wednesday for their investigation.
This indicates a slow pace of expansion: after a plus of almost one and a half percent in the summer, the German economy should only grow by around half a percent compared to the previous quarter at the end of the year.
“In view of the fact that the production capacities of the German economy are quite underutilized, growth in economic output will be meager at the end of the year,” said DIW expert Simon Junker. “This is mainly due to the global supply bottlenecks that are throwing the dust in the gears of the industry – although the order situation is actually rosy.” In the absence of intermediate goods in many places, production will probably have to be reduced further in the fourth quarter.
In addition, due to the increasing corona infections, contact-intensive services such as restaurants can at least not be expanded further, said Junker. This lull will probably also make itself felt on the labor market.
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The increase in employment is likely to continue, albeit at a much weaker pace than in the previous months. “If the material shortages gradually ebb from the turn of the year, the industry should work off the full order books quickly,” said Junker. “With the prospect of an end to the pandemic from spring 2022, the battered industries such as the event industry should then also recover sustainably.”
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