When Lenin deposed the tsar, he did not wait for a report. In uprisings and revolutions, timing is key. The time to oust British Prime Minister Boris Johnson would have been when pictures of him sipping wine in Downing Street’s garden emerged.
Riots are time sensitive because events roll over and passion builds. More events will follow in the future. The pandemic is fading and life is returning to the status quo ante.
The UK government is now planning major investments in marginal constituencies in northern England. The threat posed by the tense situation in Europe stemming from the Ukraine crisis requires the prime minister’s attention. I am aware that many people, including Tory supporters, are very upset about the party dispute in the UK. But their attention span is not unlimited. Soon they will devote themselves to other topics such as the British royal family.
It is of course possible that Johnson will still have to go. New harmful revelations could emerge, but what has come to light through the Partygate report over the past few days is not quite of the same quality. It is unlikely that there will be any evidence showing that Johnson is lying to Parliament.
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For me, the Conservative uprising ended the moment Christian Wakeford, a newly elected Tory MP from the northern English constituency of Bury South, switched to Labour. Wakeford reckoned – wrongly in my view – that as a Labor MP he would have a better chance of winning back his seat in the next election.
Johnson accomplished two things during his tenure
Johnson has been in power for two and a half years and has achieved two things in that time: He got Brexit through, which didn’t seem very likely in the summer of 2019. And his government has handled the introduction of vaccination better than most in Europe and better than the US.
‘I’m sorry’ – Johnson apologizes for lockdown parties
What Johnson has failed to do is develop a coherent post-Brexit strategy. I would call this a mixed record. I’m also skeptical that Johnson knows what he wants to do with Brexit.
I see only two plausible strategies for the future: either use the new freedoms and create a legal framework for a modern high-tech industry – an industry that deals more with data and less with physical goods. Or the United Kingdom will return to the EU internal market and customs union.
For me, the image in the garden of Downing Street is that of a bunch of losers who have lost touch – I don’t give a damn about breaking the rules.
Johnson’s notorious laziness is matched only by the laziness of those who seek to overthrow him. They disagree about politics. They have no common candidate.
Those seen as the most likely successors are conservatives Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. They have not resigned from their top jobs as finance minister and foreign minister. It is worth remembering that Johnson left the government before he was touted as the lead candidate to succeed Theresa May. He stood for a different policy.
Can Johnson’s political career recover?
And don’t forget the voting rules. Perhaps only 54 of the 380 Conservative MPs are needed for a vote of no confidence. But Johnson would only need a simple majority – around 190 if everyone is present.
The politician has come under pressure as a result of the Partygate affair.
(Photo: AP)
If he wins, even by a single vote, under the current rules, no leadership challenge can be made for another year. One should therefore not bet lightly on the scenario that an incumbent prime minister will be ousted in the absence of an overriding political issue.
The bigger question is: can Johnson recover? The Guardian quoted a Tory pollster who said the public was unhappy with the leader, not with the party. Like almost all newspaper commentary, this too is wishful thinking. If Johnson knows one thing, it’s how to recover.
I, too, believe that Johnson is the sort of politician whose career is likely to end with a bang. But I don’t think that moment is near.
The author is director of www.eurointelligence.com
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