Almost 49 million French people were called to vote on Sunday.
(Photo: REUTERS)
Paris The French will decide today in a election for the whole of Europe whether Emmanuel Macron should lead the country for another five years. The liberal president was ahead in recent polls, but a surprise victory for right-wing populist Marine Le Pen cannot be ruled out. It stands for a radical change in policy that would have far-reaching consequences for Germany and the EU.
Almost 49 million people were called to vote. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. on Sunday morning, with the last polling stations closing at 8 p.m. Immediately afterwards, the first projections will be published.
Macron and Le Pen qualified for the runoff two weeks ago after an election campaign overshadowed by the war in Ukraine. What will be decisive on Sunday is how left-wing voters behave in the run-off election. A low turnout was expected – also because several regions of the country are in the school holidays.
Macron represents a pro-European course and wants to continue his economic reforms to make France more competitive. However, in view of the narrow lead over Le Pen, he has weakened some demands in recent days, such as the plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65.
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In recent years, Le Pen has tried to give her party a more moderate image, changing the name from Front National to Rassemblement National. She tailored her election campaign to French concerns about falling purchasing power. But your program still contains numerous demands from the far right, such as a ban on headscarves in public spaces.
Although Le Pen no longer wants to lead France out of the EU and the euro, her election would massively weaken the European institutions. The right-wing populist is striving for a “Europe of free nations”, no longer wants to comply with EU law when it comes to national laws and could form an alliance with the national conservative governments in Poland and Hungary, which are also on a confrontational course with Brussels.
If Le Pen prevails, the Western front against Vladimir Putin would also develop a dangerous crack. The right-wing populist has sought out the Russian president in the past. France wants to take them out of NATO’s command structures.
>> Also read here: These are the biggest differences between Le Pen and Macron
Macron is particularly unpopular in rural areas and among the socially disadvantaged French. There he has the reputation of the “president of the rich”. Le Pen is trying to capitalize on the incumbent’s lack of popularity and presented herself as an advocate for ordinary French people, whom she wants to protect from the evil forces of the EU and globalisation.
In the camp of the head of state, however, there is confidence that in the end it will be enough for a second term. Macron’s team is planning a victory speech in front of an impressive backdrop for Sunday evening: on the Field of Mars in Paris directly at the Eiffel Tower.
This is what happens after the election
After the second round of the presidential election, the State Council still has to confirm the result, but that’s a formality. If Macron is re-elected, he is likely to appoint a new government with a new prime minister in the coming days. In the event of Le Pen’s victory, on the other hand, there would be a handover of power with a grand induction ceremony for the new president, which must take place before May 13. The right-wing populist would then appoint her own government.
In both cases, the government would initially only last until the parliamentary elections in the summer. This also takes place in two rounds, on June 12th and 19th. Although the French leader wields a great deal of power, his influence is shrinking without a majority in the National Assembly.
Without backing in Parliament, Macron or Le Pen would be forced to appoint a government made up of politicians from a different political camp. The role of the prime minister would then be much more prominent, he would be a kind of opponent of the president. That could even mean a political blockade of the country. In the past few decades there has been a so-called “cohabitation” in which the president and parliamentary majority fell apart three times: between 1986 and 1988, between 1993 and 1995 and between 1997 and 2002.
More on the subject: Worse than Brexit – what President Le Pen would mean for Europe