The Bundestag will vote on these proposals today

The reason for the tricky situation is a decision that Scholz and the relevant traffic light politicians made at the very beginning. Since a majority of the SPD, Greens and FDP was questionable from the outset because of concerns from the Liberals, the federal government decided against presenting a bill. Instead, the way was chosen via group applications from MPs from different parliamentary groups. However, that made finding a majority and negotiations difficult, as has been particularly evident in the past few days.

Plan B after unsuccessful talks with the Union

Right from the start, a motion by politicians from the SPD, Greens and FDP, which provided for compulsory vaccination from the age of 18, had the most supporters, but a majority remained out of reach. Last week Chancellor Scholz asked the Union for talks to negotiate a possible compromise. Without the votes of the CDU and CSU, compulsory vaccination has not stood a chance to this day, as a significant proportion of the traffic light groups want to vote against the project. The meeting, however, remained fruitless – and so the peaks of the application for compulsory vaccination from the age of 18 began with Plan B, namely finding a majority in the traffic light.

At the beginning of the week, they further weakened their proposal that vaccination should now be compulsory from the age of 50. This was aimed at the second group around the FDP health politician Andrew Ullmann. He had proposed an obligation to advise, which could lead to a possible obligation to vaccinate from the age of 50. But he waved it off – in the SPD they say that it was actually agreed otherwise. Ullmann’s no forced the traffic light to further talks.

As a compromise, the two groups are now proposing that people aged 60 and over must be able to show they have been vaccinated or recovered from October 15. Depending on the pandemic situation, knowledge about virus variants and vaccination rate, the Bundestag could also suspend this obligation beforehand. He could also extend it to people over 18 by decision at the earliest in September. The draft law for this group also provides for an obligation to provide advice and the establishment of a vaccination register.

Two problems for the vaccination advocates

This motion is the only draft law that has been drafted. But the short-term agreed compromise has two problems. Not all of Ullmann’s group now support the new proposal. This also includes FDP parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr. “I was inclined to agree to the application for advice because I would have found the procedure to be very useful,” Dürr told Handelsblatt. “As this proposal has been withdrawn, I cannot agree to any of the motions that are on the table. I will put a statement on that for the record.”

Other FDP politicians apparently do not want to agree to the new draft either. Around ten MPs who were previously in favor of Ullmann’s application have now dropped out, according to FDP circles. “I know that the result did not convince all the supporters in my group, but the chances of mandatory advice in connection with mandatory vaccination have now increased,” said Ullmann.

The second problem: the traffic light advocates of compulsory vaccination have not yet succeeded in winning over members of the Union for their application. They had included demands from the CDU and CSU like a vaccination register. But the Union stuck to its own proposal to the end.

The Union’s counter-proposal

The Union’s plan provides for the establishment of a vaccination register so that it is clear who is vaccinated and who needs to be specifically addressed. In its proposal, however, the CDU/CSU parliamentary group rejects a decision on compulsory vaccination at the present time and instead advocates a “graded vaccination mechanism” that the Bundestag and Bundesrat could put into effect if the pandemic situation worsens. Theoretically, this could also provide for compulsory vaccination, but only for certain particularly vulnerable population and professional groups.

If the Union remains closed and does not agree to the traffic light proposal, then it will be difficult. There is also an application from a group around FDP Vice Wolfgang Kubicki, which clearly rejects compulsory vaccination.

A simple majority is sufficient for voting. So it is not necessary for at least 369 of the 736 MPs to vote for it, but it would be enough if more of the MPs present voted yes than no. According to earlier information, the original advocates of compulsory vaccination have at least 282 MPs on their side – but only if all MPs support the compromise, which is not the case with Ullmann’s group.

On the other hand, if there were full attendance, there would theoretically be 197 members of the Union, 80 from the AfD and 50 parliamentarians from the group around Kubicki. The outcome could also depend significantly on the number of MPs present. In all factions, however, some are likely to be missing. One reason: numerous MPs also have Corona and are in quarantine.

The search for culprits

Behind the scenes, the parliamentary groups are already preparing for the failure of compulsory vaccination – and are looking to each other for responsibility. The SPD sees the blame in the Union, which has never seriously negotiated a compromise – and instead was said to have been interested in the greatest possible political damage to the government.

Anyone who speaks to the Social Democrats and the Greens also encounters a great deal of frustration with the FDP. You have to consider whether you are already a coalition partner or still in the opposition role, according to the SPD parliamentary group leadership. You work together on many topics, but the Corona policy is a single fight. The Union, in turn, looks stunned at the state of the coalition – and enjoys the role as a possible majority procurer of the traffic light.

The only thing that is unanimous is the joy that the vote on compulsory vaccination will soon be over.

More: The vaccination chaos is the oath of disclosure of the traffic light