Frankfurt Good news for all those who are looking forward to the next trip in winter after their summer vacation. Despite high inflation and sharply increased costs – holidays this winter will hardly be more expensive. For the trip next summer, on the other hand, customers will have to dig deeper into their pockets, because the tourism industry is also feeling the effects of the rising costs.
“The travel prices are not inflation drivers this winter,” said Stefan Baumert, Chairman of Tui Germany, on Tuesday at the presentation of the winter program. The higher costs would go hand in hand with price increases for trips next summer, the extent of which he could not yet quantify.
“The current inflation and rising energy prices will not have a full impact on prices, as many hotel and flight contingents for winter trips were negotiated in spring,” Baumert justified the promise to offer stable prices in winter. Depending on the holiday destination, there will be a maximum increase in the lower single-digit range.
Almost everywhere in the industry there is talk of a largely constant price level for the winter. This applies above all to the package tour, which was booked early, said Norbert Fiebig, President of the German Travel Association (DRV), the Handelsblatt. That will change in 2023. “In the future, inflation driven by rising energy costs will not stop at travel. The travel market will not be able to detach itself from general inflation.”
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However, the industry is not yet afraid of a slump in demand. Holidays are still at the top of Germans’ wish lists, says Fiebig. Even the rising energy costs and the increasing inflation would not harm this wish, at least so far. “Holidays remain important despite the rising cost of living,” agrees Hubert Kluske, Sales and Marketing Director of Tui Germany.
Holidaymakers pay attention to their money when booking
Kluske refers to a recent survey that Tui commissioned from YouGov. According to this, 74 percent of those surveyed also want to travel in winter. However, the flash survey also shows that many people pay attention to their budget. 27 percent of those surveyed stated that they were primarily looking for bargains, 20 percent booked all-inclusive packages because they offered budget security.
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“We will see a run on all-inclusive offers,” Baumert predicts from Tui. More than every second booking in winter with Tui is already such a trip. Baumert promised that the travel company reacted early to the current developments and also offers for families who have to watch their money. Early bird discounts will continue to be available.
Even if the industry is now promising in advertising that inexpensive travel will also be possible in the future – after two years of the pandemic, the tourism industry is again facing a huge challenge. The cost pressure continues to increase, also in the tourism industry, says Fiebig from the DRV: “It remains to be seen how the Germans’ propensity to consume will develop in this situation and how high the disposable household income will be.” It is hardly at the moment possible to make a reliable forecast for the coming year.
This is also so difficult because customers are booking at shorter and shorter notice. “It can be assumed that this will remain the case, at least for the time being,” expects Fiebig. In addition, German holidaymakers are very price-sensitive. “If a destination becomes too expensive, they turn to a cheaper one.”
On the other hand, the intense competition among the 2,300 tour operators is likely to mean that holidays will remain affordable for many people in the coming year, despite the higher average prices. Some people don’t seem to care much about the prices anyway. After all, eight percent of the citizens surveyed by YouGov stated that they did not pay attention to the costs when booking their trip. Demand in the luxury segment, for example for villas with their own pool, is currently stronger than ever, said Baumert von Tui.
Higher prices for holiday homes and flights
Holiday homes, for example, show how strongly rising energy costs are affecting the tourism industry. In a survey by the holiday home booking portal Holidu, 70 percent of landlords in Germany and in the foothills of the Alps stated that they were severely affected by the high costs and inflation when maintaining their property. In June, Holidu, together with its subsidiary Bookiply, surveyed 1,230 holiday home landlords in Germany, in the foothills of the Alps, in Italy and in Spain.
The survey shows that many landlords in Italy and Spain have already raised their prices. The rates for holiday homes in Germany will probably rise.
According to the German Tourism Association (DTV), energy costs are a key cost factor in tourism. The landlords are faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, they are happy when their quarters are booked with a certain amount of advance notice. On the other hand, they then have to calculate prices without knowing what they have to spend on electricity themselves.
Despite high inflation and rising energy prices, many people want to take a second vacation this year.
(Photo: imago/blickwinkel)
At the same time, it is becoming apparent that flights to holiday homes are also becoming more expensive. Airline managers are already reporting that the lowest booking class is being withdrawn early because the jet fills up quickly. This is due to the so-called yield management. The better an aircraft is occupied, the more expensive the tickets for the seats that are still free.
Plane tickets are likely to continue to rise in price in the coming months. “We will not go back down to the levels we saw before the pandemic,” said Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr at the beginning of the week at an event of the European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) in Berlin: “In the next few years we will see very stable or maybe even rising ticket prices.”
Despite the planning uncertainty, Tui manager Baumert is confident about the coming months. “We saw a travel boom that almost reached the year 2019,” he said, referring to the almost completed summer season of 2022. The summer was sold out in many places. And right now it’s looking good. “At the moment the bookings are above the level of 2019.”
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