Berlin The Willy-Brandt-Haus is busy tinkering right now. The street in front of the SPD party headquarters is cordoned off, tents are set up in front of the entrance, the beer is chilled. The SPD is expecting more than 1000 guests for the election party on Sunday.
At the event, the SPD not only wants to celebrate its comeback in the federal government, but in the best case scenario, the triple. Because what almost goes under in Olaf Scholz’s race to catch up, which was not thought possible, are the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. In these two countries, too, things are looking good to excellent for the Social Democrats. The party could achieve a historic triple triumph.
In the election for the Berlin House of Representatives, as in the federal government, a close race is emerging. But thanks to the popular top candidate Franziska Giffey, the Berlin SPD has moved up from fourth to first place in surveys and has recently been able to set itself apart from the Greens in some surveys.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, on the other hand, the winner is almost certain. Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD) is likely to achieve a brilliant election victory, in all surveys her SPD was most recently around 40 percent. The AfD at 16 and the Union at 14 percent are far behind.
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Sunday could be a turning point. For German politics, but also for the SPD. If Giffey and Schwesig win, they will be proud to be the ones who will set the tone in the SPD in the future. Even without a high-ranking party office at the federal level.
The SPD top candidate has a good chance of becoming the next Federal Chancellor.
(Photo: imago images / Xinhua)
The election victories would also confirm the thesis that the SPD wins elections with candidates from the middle. Like Scholz, Schwesig and Giffey also stand for a pragmatic political style. The two top candidates play a key role in ensuring that the SPD is also celebrating a comeback in eastern Germany.
The fact that the Social Democrats seemed to have no chance for so long in the federal election campaign was also due to the party’s long-term chronic weakness in eastern and southern Germany. In Saxony, Thuringia and Bavaria, the SPD threatened to slide towards the five percent mark.
People are more important than programs
But within just six weeks, according to surveys, the SPD in Bavaria has roughly doubled and now stands at 18 percent. In Nuremberg or Munich she even has a chance to get direct mandates – which would be a disgrace for the CSU, since it usually wins all direct mandates in Bavaria.
The SPD made similar leaps in East Germany. In Thuringia, the Social Democrats are suddenly at 21 percent and could become the strongest force coming from fourth place. In Saxony, the SPD stands at 18 percent, which is way above its 2017 result, which was just double-digit.
One reason for the resurgence: topics such as pensions or social security played a significantly larger role in the East, climate change a subordinate one, according to an analysis by the Berlin-based think tank “Progressives Zentrum”. That plays into the cards of the SPD.
In addition, people and their credibility are more important in the East than parties. “With Schwesig and Giffey, the SPD is the only visible and influential leadership figure from the East,” the analysis continues. The two also stole beyond their federal states to the east.
Giffey realigns Berlin SPD
While the Greens in Berlin have sent a rather unknown candidate into the race with Bettina Jarasch, Franziska Giffey benefits in the capital from her fame as the former Federal Family Minister and Mayor of the Berlin district of Neukölln. As with Scholz and Schwesig, the election campaign is tailored to them.
Giffey clearly distinguishes himself from the previous red-red-green Senate of Mayor Michael Müller (SPD) and leaves another left-wing coalition open. Instead, a traffic light coalition is also being discussed in the city-state.
The SPD top candidate distances herself from the previous policy of the Berlin state government.
(Photo: dpa)
Giffey has been flashing clearly in the direction of the center since the beginning of the election campaign. She emphasizes how important the economy is to her and describes expropriations as the “red line”. This is interesting because on Sunday in Berlin there will also be a referendum on the expropriation of large real estate companies.
Giffey wants to push ahead with the expansion of city highways and refrain from experiments such as the rent cap. What Giffey said during the election campaign was “pure CDU”, praised CDU parliamentary group leader Burkard Dregger. In the traditionally left-wing Berlin SPD regional association, this is by no means only well received, apparently with many voters. In order not to jeopardize the re-entry into the Red City Hall, the open criticism of Giffey from the left wing of the party is therefore limited.
Schwesig: Even the CDU now pays you respect
Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania does not have to fear that she will not move back into her office. The 47-year-old is finally fit again after her cancer and has arrived in the role of mother of the country. During the election campaign on the coast, you sometimes get the impression that there is only one candidate – Schwesig. In the election campaign her slogan is now: “The woman for MV”.
The former Federal Minister for Family Affairs made quite a few changes of direction in the corona crisis management. In between, Schwesig wanted to cordon off Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania for families who wanted to go on vacation in the state. But it didn’t do her any lasting harm.
Instead, she was perceived as the Prime Minister who stood up to the Chancellor in the Corona crisis. Schwesig’s objections that she would forget about the children in all the measures she took, she forbade, said Merkel in one of the Prime Minister’s conferences.
Schwesig managed the feat, which is rare in politics, of turning its image by 180 degrees. In 2011 CDU politician Lorenz Caffier mocked Schwesig as a “coastal barbie”. Some of the SPD also talked about Schwesig in a similar way. Caffier was later her interior minister and had to resign in 2020 after buying a gun from a dealer who was a member of the right-wing extremist group Nordkreuz.
Schwesig and Giffey: candidates for the party chairmanship
Today, people in the CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania speak reverently of the “ice queen”. And in her own party, Schwesig is now referred to as the “last guy in the SPD”. Schwesig brings a “nefariousness” like few politicians. That qualifies them for the highest offices, said a top comrade appreciatively.
But not all see their dominance as positive. Schwesig does not tolerate anyone next to him, keep others in the party small and do not build a successor, according to their regional association. If one day she should change jobs, the SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would have a problem.
Schwesig and Giffey were actually the logical candidates for the party chairmanship of the Federal SPD in 2019. But with Giffey the plagiarism affair about her doctoral thesis intervened, with Schwesig the cancer. At that time, Schwesig had only been Prime Minister for two years. And from her time as interim party leader after Andrea Nahles resigned in 2019, she knew how exhausting the office is.
After a possible election victory, however, Giffey’s doctoral thesis would slowly be forgotten and Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would be inviolable. In the SPD, therefore, there has long been an oracle that one of the two could take over the party chairmanship if party leader Saskia Esken should become federal minister, which not a few in the party hope.
In this election case, Schwesig would probably have the first access right. But in the event of an election victory, Giffey would also be one of the SPD’s first leadership reserves behind Scholz. But first of all, the decisive factor must succeed – and the SPD actually win the three elections.
More: Manuela Schwesig recommends herself for higher offices in the middle of the Corona crisis