Bitcoin price has again surpassed the $28,000 zone, where investors are expecting a major price move. Will $30,000 be next, or can the bears take over $25,000? Here are the expectations of analysts from BTC in the short term…
Bitcoin price is at a turning point, which comes first: $25,000 or $30,000?
After the recent release of US employment data, many BTC investors are expecting a significant bullish move. Over the past few days, Bitcoin’s price has shown sideways movement, leaving investors eagerly awaiting a potential breakout next week. However, several on-chain metrics are giving bullish signals that could soon restore investor confidence and push the price above the $30,000 threshold.
In one of them, Glassnode reported that BTC is seeing positive on-chain even in the midst of this week’s sideways price action. The analyst closely monitors the miner fee revenue momentum metric, which measures increased demand on BTC.
The analytics firm states that the metric currently shows signals of increasing demand for Bitcoin. The 90-day SMA for fees has recently exceeded its annual average, with new demand entering the market. Glassnode has announced that the Open Interest on Bitcoin Options contracts has exceeded the Futures contract for the first time. Bitcoin Options contracts are currently around $10.3 billion, while Futures contracts are worth $10 billion.
Glassnode also noted that Futures Open Interest remains relatively stable in 2023. The recent surge in call options indicates that investors are speculating on a higher Bitcoin price in the future. Also, Santiment, another crypto analytics firm, reported that Bitcoin investors are currently trading at a loss of twice the profit rate, which the firm considers a positive development for the market.
Can Bitcoin price exceed $30,000 this week?
While the price has been hovering below $29,000 in recent days, experts are expressing mixed views on Bitcoin’s near future. Some analysts predict a potential increase to $30,000, while others argue that it may have reached a temporary high.
A symmetrical triangle appeared near $29,000 on the Bitcoin chart. This marks an equal level of uncertainty between bullish and short traders regarding BTC’s impending price action.
On the other hand, recent analysis by Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann indicates that Bitcoin is reluctant to rise or fall. Consolidation risks falling to $25,000 to gather liquidity, according to two experts:
Despite the short-term tremor, the price pushed above the range and consolidated between $27.7k (pivot point) and $28.6k. The longer we stand within the range, the more likely Bitcoin is to drop to $25-26.5k to catch up with liquidity, leading to a full-blown alt season.
However, the Bitcoin risk signal remains stable at the lower end, suggesting that the risk of a full drop to the $25,000-26,600 range is a relatively low and maximum pain scenario. On the positive side, the price could rise to $29,200 to $30,000, according to Glassnode founders.
Which direction does historical data point for BTC?
Answering this question, popular on-chain analyst Ali Martinez put forward a positive scenario. In their current analysis, referring to aSORP, “Another Bitcoin indicator points to explosive growth!” he wrote.
Historically, an aSORP (90-day moving average) below 1 indicated a bear market. When it’s above 1, it’s always the start of a new bull market.
Martinez says that the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) index (short for Output Profit Ratio) has exceeded 1, indicating a parabolic bullish potential for Bitcoin. When below zero, this index indicates a bear market.
However, when aSOPR climbed above the 1 level in 2015, 2019 and 2020, it caused Bitcoin to show a staggering 150% gains and 579% gains in the previous two cases. In 2015, it boosted the BTC price by 6,110%, allowing BTC to hit an all-time high of just under $400 to $20,000.
Michael van de Poppe
On the technical analysis side, popular crypto analyst and trader Michaël van de Poppe agrees that Bitcoin is still stuck in the range of the last three weeks and continues to consolidate, similar to the Glassnode founders’ predictions above.
According to Van de Poppe, “The big thing this week with the CPI is probably what moves the market. If another test of $28,600 is made, I assume we are going up.” While many experts are waiting for another drop and want to buy only at $25,000, Poppe believes that will not happen. According to the analyst: There is currently no clear bearish trend on higher time scales.
Van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to retest $28,600 soon and possibly rise above $30,000, as he does not observe a bearish trend on the chart.
Jesse Colombo
Economic analyst and Forbes columnist Jesse Colombo is currently observing a pennant formation that seems to be forming below the critical $30,000 resistance level. Colombo shared and detailed the graphic below on Twitter:
If Bitcoin can break out of this pennant formation with strong trading volume and break above $30,000, it will be a bullish confirmation signal.
On the other hand, Twitter analyst “@52skew” is warning of a time-based capitulation after Bitcoin failed to sustainably surpass $28,600 on higher timeframes in recent weeks. The analyst thinks that investors have lost faith in Bitcoin’s strength (as evidenced by the falling volume).
How is the Bitcoin price?
At the time of writing, bitcoin price was trading in the $28,350 region and consolidating below key resistance. cryptocoin.comAs you follow, it has moved up over 1.5% in the last 24 hours. In the same time frame, the altcoin market is also rising at a similar rate.
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