Berlin The final spurt at the World Climate Conference begins – and with it the haggling. “There are a number of countries that have been playing an opaque game so far,” says Christoph Bals, political director of the development and environmental organization Germanwatch, the Handelsblatt. “We’ll soon see which countries block fundamentally or who wants another concession in return for a concession, which could ultimately be quite constructive.”
There are several issues, such as the question of the extent to which developing countries can be given greater support in adapting to climate change and how sufficiently stable and predictable sources of finance can be secured.
Poor states that are already suffering from droughts, floods and rising sea levels due to accelerated global warming insist on more support from the industrialized countries. However, they have been reacting cautiously for years – also because they fear lawsuits for damages in court.
The environmental organization Germanwatch and the think tank NewClimate Institute make the gap between ambition and reality in climate protection clear. The Climate Protection Index (KSI) presented by you today, Tuesday, shows that only a few countries are actually heading towards the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius in a pre-industrial comparison.
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In addition to the Scandinavian countries, these are above all Morocco, the Netherlands, Portugal and France, according to the report, which has been published annually since 2005 and examines the 61 largest emitters.
Denmark, Sweden and Norway lead the ranking
Denmark, Sweden and Norway occupy positions four to six. Places one to three remain vacant, as in previous years, as no country is yet on the globally targeted 1.5-degree path.
In 2015, the global community agreed in the Paris Climate Agreement to limit global warming to below two degrees Celsius, or better than 1.5 degrees. There is now a broad consensus that one cannot be satisfied with just two degrees in order to mitigate the most destructive forces of climate change. To date, the global average temperature has already increased by 1.1 degrees – and extreme weather events are increasing around the globe.
“The race to zero greenhouse gas emissions has begun,” says Niklas Höhne from the NewClimate Institute, one of the authors of the index. Four categories were considered: firstly, emission level and trend, which is included in the overall assessment with 40 percent. 20 percent each have an impact: the expansion of renewable energies, energy consumption and climate policy. The latter is based on assessments by organizations and think tanks from the respective countries. This year around 500 experts supported the index.
The expansion targets for renewable energies in Norway are considered ambitious.
(Photo: Reuters)
Germany is ranked 13th better than it has been in eight years, but it still does not belong to the top group. the The EU as a whole follows somewhat behind in 22nd place. The largest emitter in the world, China, has slipped four places to 37th.
The second largest emitter, the USA, makes up six places and is in 55th place. Canada and Saudi Arabia occupy one of the last places.
The following overview shows the strengths and weaknesses of selected countries:
Denmark, Rank three, is the overall winner, but has some catching up to do in terms of energy efficiency and in achieving its goals set for 2030, especially in the transport and agricultural sectors.
Norway, Sixth place, benefits from a high proportion of hydropower and is increasingly relying on wind and solar energy. The expansion targets are considered ambitious. However, the Norwegian experts criticize the continued exploitation and export of oil and gas resources. “If Norway were to stop developing oil and gas fields in the Arctic, the country could be the first ever to occupy one of the previously unoccupied first three places in the overall ranking of the index. Then it would probably be on a path that is actually Paris-compatible, ”says Jan Burck from Germanwatch, one of the authors of the index.
Great Britain, Rank seven, is considered ambitious, has a high proportion of renewable energies, mainly due to offshore wind farms and the phase-out from coal-fired power generation. As an interim goal on the way to greenhouse gas neutrality in 2050, Great Britain wants to organize its energy system to be CO2-neutral by 2035.
As in Germany, the building sector is lagging behind, and the renovation backlog is even greater. Countermeasures do not go far enough.
Morocco remains in the top ten. The country is very active in expanding renewable energies. So far, however, the energy sector has been very heavy on CO2. Fossil fuels make up a large proportion of the total primary energy supply. Subsidies for fossil fuels are gradually being phased out. The experts also see progress in investing in public transport. The agricultural and building sectors are considered to be weak points.
India, Rank ten, is facing a turning point. The country has so far benefited from its relatively low per capita emissions. In absolute terms, however, India is the fourth largest emitter in the world after China, the USA and the EU. Only strong climate goals with ambitious implementation can save the country from an impending fall in the ranking.
Country experts pay tribute to India’s ambitious policy in the expansion of renewable energies as well as the plans to expand electromobility, but consider many plans to be immature.
In addition, so far no Indian state has announced a clear exit from coal. On the contrary: the pipeline of the planned coal-fired power plants is the second largest in the world and one of the few that has increased since 2015. India last declared that it wanted to be climate neutral by 2070.
These countries are behind tenth place
Germany has moved up to 13th place. The tightened target of reducing emissions by 65 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 is rated positively. In addition, climate neutrality has been promised by 2045. The high level of emissions per inhabitant, the faltering expansion of renewable energies and insufficient implementation plans for the improved climate targets are considered problematic. “When asked how Germany actually wants to achieve its climate goals, politicians have not yet given sufficient answers,” says Burck. “It is the acid test for the new federal government, whether it sets the course for target achievement with an emergency program.”
The experts are calling for a faster phase-out of coal, the abolition of environmentally harmful subsidies and the faster expansion of renewable energies. The decarbonisation of the transport and building sectors needs to be accelerated.
the EU drops six places to 22nd place. Strong political and legislative approaches in the transport, building and energy sectors are praised. Discussions are also ongoing on strengthening land use, forestry and agricultural policies and on improving the emissions trading system.
However, there is a lack of data on the phase-out of coal and gas. With the 2030 climate target, which means reducing emissions by 55 percent instead of 40 percent compared to 1990, the EU is not yet on a path compatible with the Paris Agreement. In addition, the EU is required to play a bigger role on the international stage.
Brazil, Rank 33, paints a mixed picture. With its high share of renewable energies and low per capita emissions, the country is actually a candidate for the top ranks, but has fallen eight places. Brazil wants to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2050, but does not specify any concrete measures for implementation. The further expansion of renewables is weak and deforestation is progressing. Germanwatch expects another fall back next year.
China, Rank 37, has consistently bad ratings for emissions and the previously very poor energy efficiency. In both areas, the targets for 2030 are far from a Paris-compatible path.
The phase-out from coal is considered too slow, and further coal-fired power plants are planned. At the same time, the trend in the expansion of renewable energies is considered to be extremely good. Compared to the USA, China benefits from significantly lower per capita emissions and lower energy use. In absolute terms, however, the People’s Republic is the largest emitter. The highest level of emissions is to be reached by 2030. The country aims to be CO2 neutral by 2060.
Bottom of the ranking
the United States are one of the big climbers this year with an improvement from six places to 55th place, but benefit from advance praise. According to the index authors Höhne and Burck, the improvement in the index has so far been exclusively due to the significantly better policy assessment and the new climate target for 2030.
If US President Joe Biden manages to implement the ambitious goals, he expects the USA to be “much further ahead” in the coming year, said Burck. One problem lies in the high per capita emissions of greenhouse gases – this is twice as high in America as in China.
Australia slipped four places to 58th place. There is a wide gap between aspiration and reality. Although the country wants to be greenhouse gas neutral by 2050, there are no measures or plans.
Canada ranks 61st, partly due to very high per capita emissions. The experts acknowledge that the government has committed itself to climate neutrality by 2050, but there is a lack of clear measures and coherent regulations to actually achieve this goal. The experts see scope for the expansion of renewable energies, the electrification of transport and an early decarbonisation of the electricity network by 2030.
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