With Mehmet Şimşek being put in the cockpit of the economy in Turkey after the elections, reports from famous investment banks continue to come.
Goldman Sachs, which published the first report after the announcement of the new cabinet, increased its year-end expectation for the dollar/TL parity from 20 to 28, while reports were also received from JPMorgan and Societe Generale.
“The Probability of a Sharp Increase in Interest Rates is One of the Possibilities on the Table”
The US-based investment bank JPMorgan, in a note to its customers, announced the first expectations of the newly appointed economy management over interest. In the note, the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee, which will be held on June 22, will determine the current level of interest rates. from 8.5 percent to 25 percent He wrote that the probability of getting as much as possible is one of the possibilities on the table.
The Bank expressed its expectations for the level that interest rates will reach at the end of the year. 30 percent “There is the possibility of a policy rate hike to 25 percent from the current 8.5 percent level on June 22 or earlier, and a steering statement pointing to smaller rate hikes if needed. We keep our year-end policy rate forecast at 30 percent,” he said.
TL Short Position Advice from Societe Generale
Pointing out that the depreciation of the TL may accelerate despite the possibility that the new economy management will return to rational policies, France-based Societe Genarle advised investors to take a short position in TL.
In the note, it is stated that the depreciation of TL may reverse “gradually” in the coming months and that the year of the dollar/TL 21.50 It was also estimated that it would be completed around
Sharing the expectations of the CBRT regarding the interest rate decision, the bank said that the economy under Mehmet Şimşek’s management could raise interest rates by 650 basis points in the first meeting.
Expecting interest rates to reach 15 percent at the meeting to be held on June 22, the bank keeps on the table the possibility of two more 500 basis points increases in July and August.
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