“Putin has no reason to negotiate”

Berlin According to political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala, Russian President Vladimir Putin currently sees no reason for negotiations with Ukraine. Masala, Professor of International Politics at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich, told the German Press Agency that Putin would only begin to negotiate seriously if he had to fear that he would lose more than he would win by continuing the war. But that is not the case at the moment. “It works for him. So there is absolutely no incentive to get involved in these negotiations.”

According to Masala, the most recent military successes of the Russian armed forces in the Donbass in eastern Ukraine can be traced back to two causes: First, the Ukrainians lack heavy weapons. Second, the Russians had successfully changed their strategy. “In contrast to the previous course of the war, they are no longer advancing on broad sections of the front, but are concentrating their troops to advance on small sections of the front. As a result, they currently have a personal superiority.”

For Ukraine, the question now arises as to whether it will give up certain areas because otherwise there would be a risk that troops would be surrounded there and then perhaps become prisoners of war. For example, it is specifically about the city of Sievjerodonetsk. “If the Russians take this city, they will have almost complete control of Luhansk Oblast,” Masala said. The decisive factor for the further course of the war is now the success of the counter-offensive announced by Ukraine for June.

In order to improve Ukraine’s prospects, Masala advocates the delivery of heavy weapons. “You have to change Putin’s cost-benefit calculations.” If negotiations were to actually take place at some point, they would become extraordinarily difficult. “This is simply because Ukraine does not want to give up any territory and the Russians do not want to withdraw from Ukraine. That is why these negotiations will accompany us for a long time. The ceasefires will be very unstable, fighting will flare up again and again. This is not a two or three week process.

Putin is not in danger

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already made it clear that every negotiation result must be approved by the population in a referendum. “Because otherwise it is not resilient. Then it will end in chaos,” Masala warned.

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Masala does not believe that Putin depends on success for his political and perhaps physical survival. “It’s like this at the moment: Putin is waging a war that is causing Russia high economic costs, and nobody is getting in his way. So the internal power system seems stable. In addition, Putin can use the state propaganda apparatus to sell a lot of things internally as victory. I don’t think his position is in jeopardy.”

One can only speculate about Putin’s current war goals. “We don’t know whether it’s enough for him to snatch the Donbass and the land bridge to Crimea from Ukraine – which would correspond to 15 to 20 percent of the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany – or whether he wants more. He has announced more.” There is speculation that Putin wants to carry out attacks on the capital Kyiv again from the consolidated Donbass.

Ukraine is receiving military aid from the West, but Putin hasn’t shot his powder yet either. For example, he could declare a state of war and then order a general mobilization. “He shys away from it for good reason,” said Masala, “but he still has options.”

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