Tokyo, New York First the Speaker of the US House of Representatives met Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv. Now Nancy Pelosi wants to travel to Taiwan. But the government is concerned about the Democrat’s planned diplomatic offensive for August. She fears that the visit to the Asian ally could worsen the already strained relations with China. Beijing could even close the airspace over Taiwan, they say.
For US President Joe Biden, the discussion about the planned trip comes at an extremely inopportune moment. Finally, the US President is preparing for a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which could take place later this week.
Like his predecessor Donald Trump, Biden wants to curb the power of the Chinese. But at the same time he is also looking for dialogue. Because Biden knows that, in the worst case, the Taiwan question could spark a military conflict between the two superpowers.
Biden told reporters last week that the military doesn’t think Pelosi’s trip is “a good idea right now.” Pelosi countered, “Maybe the military is afraid our plane will be shot down by the Chinese or something like that.”
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Several prominent Republicans are now supporting Pelosi’s travel plans – indirectly criticizing Biden for being too soft on China. “I think if the speaker wants to go, she should go,” Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense under President Trump, told CNN.
Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, even announced on Twitter that he was coming: “Nancy, I’m coming with you. I’m blacklisted in China, but not in freedom-loving Taiwan. See you there!” he tweeted.
How real is the threat of a military confrontation? Taiwan’s navy is on alert.
(Photo: AP)
For Nancy Pelosi, the trip that she originally wanted to take in April, but which then had to be canceled because of her Covid infection, falls in the middle of her election campaign. The 82-year-old is running again as a representative for her constituency in San Francisco. In doing so, she presents herself primarily as a champion of freedom – whether in the Ukraine or in Taiwan.
Pelosi’s plan is causing concern in Washington above all because China has repeatedly warned the United States about a possible trip to Taiwan. “If the US side insists on this visit, China will take decisive and strong measures to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Beijing foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday.
The Chinese leadership regards free Taiwan as part of the communist People’s Republic and is threatening to conquer it. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concerns have grown that Beijing too might one day carry out its threats.
The inhabitants of the island have been living with an acute risk of war for more than 70 years. The communist rulers in China regularly threaten to use force to bring the small capitalist republic into the Middle Kingdom if necessary. Some experts now see the danger of an imminent escalation, while others believe this is only likely in the medium term. For example, the head of the renowned Asia Society, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, sees an invasion more as a problem for the coming decade.
The US President wants to call Chinese President Xi. Trouble about Taiwan would be inconvenient for him.
(Photo: AP)
Taiwan’s people also remain calm. Pelosi’s visit is welcomed by many as he represents unconditional support from the US, said Brian Hioe, editor of the left-wing online magazine New Bloom. The country is aware of the growing threat. In the meantime, there are groups of citizens who practice civil protection as a preventive measure in order to increase their country’s defense readiness. “Sometimes there’s even weapon practice,” says Hioe. “But in the media, the threat from China is more of a background noise that may have gotten a little louder now.”
Nevertheless, tensions are undeniably increasing, as shown by China’s regular deployment of fighter jets in Taiwan’s air defense zone and the numerous statements of solidarity towards Taiwan by Western countries.
With the “Taiwan Relations Act”, the USA is relying on “strategic vagueness”. After that, the USA supports the island, for example by supplying arms, but has not promised any legally binding military assistance. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden has repeatedly pledged to defend the island against invasion. Japanese leaders from the ruling conservatives have also signaled that the country would stand by its neighbor in the event of an invasion.
The economy of the two countries is closely intertwined
The economies of China and Taiwan are closely intertwined. 60 percent of the island state’s exports go to China. And China is still partly dependent on technology imports and investments by Taiwanese companies.
The German economy is not showing any signs of panic either. According to a survey published in early 2022 by the German Chamber of Commerce Abroad, the willingness to invest has shown a high level of continuity over the past five years. 85 percent of the participants have therefore achieved their goals, 95 percent said they would stay on the island and not shift their investments to other countries.
Chamber boss Axel Limberg also sees new interest. “German companies continue to be interested in Taiwan, especially in the energy sector,” he says in an interview. “Questions about a possible growing danger tend to come from Germany, not here from Taiwan.” The same applies to Taiwanese. “I’m often told that people are aware of the special situation and that everyone involved is reacting prudently.” Overall, Taiwan is “a stable and reliable partner,” says Limberg.
The chemical company Merck apparently shares this assessment. The company announced investments of around 500 million euros each in the mainland and the island at the end of 2021 to support the respective semiconductor industries. The company announced at the time that this was the largest investment since Merck’s involvement in Taiwan began.
The Taiwan expert Sean King, senior vice president at the US lobbyist consultant Park Strategies, shows understanding for the commitment. “I can’t imagine the leadership in Beijing doing anything serious,” he says. “I don’t expect a repeat of the 1996 missile crisis.” At that time, the People’s Republic tried to intimidate the population with repeated missile tests before a presidential election, in order to persuade then-President Lee Teng-hui to be voted out. Not only did he have the chutzpah to visit the United States in 1995, he was also considered a supporter of the independence movement.
In 2000, he was even expelled from the Kuomintang (KMT), the party that ruled Taiwan at the time and had long ruled dictatorially. Because to this day, many older members continue to believe in the idea of a united China. Now memories of the missile crisis are awakening. Will China provoke again before local elections in autumn? Political observers fear Beijing will try to back President Tsai Ing-wen’s left-wing Democratic Progressive Party against the opposition KMT. Tsai advocates the vague status quo so as not to irritate Beijing. After that, the government renounced a formal declaration of independence. “Most Taiwanese seem happy with it,” says King.
In addition, the expert believes that Xi is currently busy with the fight for his re-election in the fall, the economic crisis and the fight against corona outbreaks and needs a certain foreign policy stability for this.
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