“Only Putin can stop Putin”

Berlin According to political scientist Carlo Masala, tougher sanctions will not persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to give in. Sanctions have already been “priced in” by Russia. “And the gains that Russia can expect from this war of aggression exceed the expected costs,” the professor at Munich’s Bundeswehr University told the Handelsblatt. “Therefore, sanctions will not lead to any change in behavior.”

Masala is convinced: “Only Putin can stop Putin.” He has the “escalation dominance” and can therefore decide when to de-escalate. “There is no possibility of influence from the outside,” said the expert.

Masala is critical of demands for arms deliveries to Ukraine. “It’s too late now. You also have to train the soldiers who are supposed to operate such weapons,” he said. Instead, Germany’s focus should be on supporting civil disaster relief “to alleviate the unnecessary suffering of the Ukrainian civilian population”.

Despite this, Masala is expecting a wave of refugees from Ukraine. This is part of hybrid warfare. “Putin wants to destabilize European societies through refugee flows,” he said.

Read the full interview here:

Mr. Masala, there is great international outrage at Russia’s actions. But: wasn’t it foreseeable long ago that Vladimir Putin would take the path of a war of aggression against Ukraine?
I think, looking back, one can conclude that Putin had been planning this attack for a long time and that whatever diplomatic effort he appears to have engaged in served to give him more time to prepare.

Ukraine is pretty much alone now. Nothing more has come from the international community than expressions of solidarity. Was it a mistake not to supply arms to Ukraine?
Yes, it was a mistake not to arm Ukraine more massively, especially in the area of ​​anti-aircraft defense. This was apparently eliminated by the Russian forces within hours. This now allows Russia to take strategic positions in Ukraine with airborne troops.

Should the West, and with it Germany, now change its mind about arms deliveries?
It’s too late now. You also have to train the soldiers who are supposed to operate such weapons. Germany’s focus now should be on supporting civil disaster relief to alleviate the unnecessary suffering of Ukrainian civilians.

The President of the International Rescue Committee and former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the Russian attack on Ukraine “raises serious damage to civilians and massive displacement”. Do we have to prepare for a massive wave of refugees?
Yes, and the wave of refugees is part of hybrid warfare. Putin wants to destabilize European societies through refugee flows. Belarus’ fake refugee crisis last year…

… when the dictator of Belarus used refugees as leverage …
… was a test balloon for this.

How does the federal government have to react now – does it need a kind of crisis management team to quickly prepare for a possible influx of refugees?
Talks are now needed with the European states to clarify how the refugees will be dealt with. Who takes how many. And material preparations are needed at the national level, including accommodation, for example.

The West now wants to react with even tougher sanctions against Russia – will that impress the Kremlin?
No, all of these sanctions, and Putin said so in his speech after the National Security Council meeting, have already been priced in by Russia. And the gains that Russia can expect from this war of aggression exceed the expected costs. Therefore, sanctions will not lead to a change in behavior.

More on the Ukraine crisis:

The Chinese Foreign Ministry even denies that it was a Russian invasion. Instead, it spoke of legitimate security interests. Is this attitude a sign that the world order is being reorganized and that a Russia-China axis is forming against the West?
This alliance has existed for a long time, and over the past five years it has become ever closer – politically, economically and also militarily. China is closely watching the situation between Russia and the “West” because it represents a blueprint for China’s own ambitions in Asia.

Could Moscow and Beijing moving closer together economically also be a reason why the West’s sanctions against Russia are not having the desired effect?
There seems to have been preparations for an alternative to Swift for quite some time. The volume of trade between the two countries has also more than doubled in the last ten years. For Russia, China is the reassurance that the “Western” sanctions will be less severe.

With the war instigated by Russia against Ukraine, is the NATO-Russia Founding Act passé? The document says, among other things, that NATO and Russia do not see each other as enemies?
The NATO-Russia Founding Act was de facto terminated by Russia in 2014.

When Russia annexed Crimea.
Yes. It is now up to NATO to bury this document and to implement the freedom of action it has given it. This means, for example, the permanent stationing of substantial combat units in the new member states.

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What is Putin up to now? Is it to be feared that he will focus on other countries if he is not stopped now?
I am critical of a possible situation in which Finland and Sweden apply for NATO membership. That could prompt Russia to step up provocations on NATO’s northern flank. On the other hand, I consider an attack on the Baltic States or Poland to be unlikely, since such an Article 5 would trigger and thus raise the conflict to the level of the USA versus Russia with nuclear weapons. Putin has no interest in that either.

Latvian President Egils Levits says the aggression could also herald the end of the Putin regime in Russia. Do you share this assessment?
If the fighting is accompanied by high casualties of the Russian armed forces, then the Russian people could turn against this war of aggression. And then this could well be the beginning of the end of the Putin regime.

Who can stop Putin anyway?
Only Putin can stop Putin. He has escalation dominance and he can decide when to de-escalate. There are no outside influences.

SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich speaks of a war of aggression that violates international law and calls the Russian president a war criminal. Shouldn’t Putin then be held accountable by a war crimes tribunal at some point?
He should be charged. And only if the Russian jurisdiction does not take up this case, he would have to be extradited to The Hague. But who should do that? And special forces wouldn’t get him out of there.

Mr. Masala, thank you very much for the interview.

More: Scholz condemns Russia’s attack: “This is Putin’s war.”