Berlin, Brussels If it weren’t for the corona crisis and a handshake were possible, this would happen. Since Donald Trump no longer sits in the White House, but Joe Biden, German-American relations have brightened noticeably again.
When Biden receives the new Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) in Washington for the first time on Monday, the reception will be warmer than during Angela Merkel’s (CDU) first visit to Trump, when he refused to shake the Chancellor’s hand. The federal government describes the Biden administration as a “stroke of luck”.
The first personal meeting between Scholz and Biden is more than a classic inaugural visit, but a special meeting in times of great crisis diplomacy, in which the new chancellor in particular has come under criticism. In the Ukraine crisis, Scholz is accused of acting too cautiously, and some in the US Congress already consider the German Chancellor to be “unreliable”.
When Biden replaced Trump in the White House, the US should have made efforts to repair the transatlantic relationship, says Rachel Rizzo, Europe expert at the Atlantic Council. “Now it seems to be exactly the other way around: It’s the Germans who have to take care of repair work.” That pretty much outlines Scholz’s mission in Washington.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
For Scholz, there is a lot at stake in Washington: the West must send a signal of unity to Moscow. And like Merkel, Scholz must gain the US President’s trust in order to be able to take more initiative in Russia policy.
Discussion about Nord Stream 2 will play a central role
Everyone knows, even in Moscow, that the USA is serious about its threat of sanctions against Russia. It is less clear how serious the EU is. On the one hand, this is due to French President Emmanuel Macron, who is accused, particularly in Eastern Europe, of pursuing parallel diplomacy with Russia and possibly even striving for his own security deal with Putin.
But it is also due to Scholz, who found it difficult to define Nord Stream 2 as a means of sanctions, and who to this day has only hidden that the controversial gas pipeline will not go into operation should the Ukraine crisis escalate – to the annoyance of the USA. The discussion about the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline will therefore play a central role on the Scholz trip.
The chancellor brought the misery on himself. He repeatedly said that the pipeline should be treated as a “private sector” project, a formulation that caused considerable irritation in Washington.
The focus of the visit is the discussion about the controversial Baltic Sea pipeline.
(Photo: Reuters)
Last summer, Germany and the US agreed on a painstakingly negotiated statement on Nord Stream 2, in which Germany committed “that Russia will not use any pipeline, including Nord Stream 2, to achieve aggressive political goals.”
Even if the text remains vague in parts, the Americans interpret the agreement as an implicit promise that the natural gas pipeline, which has now been completed, will not go into operation in the event of Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Continuation of the policies of the Merkel era
The federal government is also said to have accepted this interpretation: in coalition circles it can be heard that there was an informal commitment that supplements the declaration. Accordingly, ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel assured US President Biden that Nord Stream 2 would not go online if Russia invaded Ukraine. It is said that Merkel also did this on behalf of Scholz.
>> Read here: Russia has the upper hand in the fight for gas – for now
When Scholz had hardly declared the pipeline a non-political matter in office, the Americans feared that the new chancellor wanted to question the painstakingly negotiated Nord Stream 2 compromise. The irritation explains why the criticism of German foreign policy has been so severe in recent weeks.
This also applies to the dispute over military aid for Kiev. Berlin’s refusal to deliver arms to the Ukrainian army is viewed almost as critically in the USA as Nord Stream 2. This reluctance is not a change of course, but the continuation of the policies of the Merkel era, which the Americans had known for a long time. If Scholz had not previously raised doubts about his reliability with his statements on Nord Stream 2, there would hardly have been such a heated debate about it.
Scholz, who claims to speak a clear language, has still not brought himself to combine the words Nord Stream 2 and sanctions in one sentence. When asked about the pipeline, he now replies that “everything can be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine.” He no longer repeats the description of the project as “purely private”. But the new terminology is not a commitment to sanctions either, there is much that can be discussed.
Trip will be Scholz‘ don’t change attitude
It is difficult to explain why Scholz remains vague. Politically it makes little sense. The Americans have long since made a commitment: if the Russian army invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will be unthinkable. Anyone involved in the project will face US sanctions.
The EU Commission is similarly robust. The fate of the pipeline “depends on Russia’s behavior,” said commission chief Ursula von der Leyen in an interview with the Handelsblatt.
According to government circles, Scholz will not change his stance on his trip to the USA, nor will he shift his emphasis – for example with a clearer rejection of Nord Stream 2 in the event of a Russian invasion. The German side also does not expect US President Biden to put pressure on Scholz in this direction at the meeting.
But the idea that Germany could inaugurate the gas pipeline against the declared will of its closest partners while Ukraine is being overrun by Russian tanks is absurd. Especially since Scholz’ coalition partners, the Greens and the FDP, who have long been critical of the pipeline – would never support such a policy.
More: Where is Olaf Scholz? After much hesitation, the chancellor sought to flee to the front