Dusseldorf The Dax continued its climb on Tuesday. Regardless of all economic and geopolitical risks, the leading German index closed 0.68 percent higher at 13,910.12 points on Tuesday. It thus reached its highest level for more than two months.
Since the end of 2017, the 13,800 mark has regularly turned out to be stubborn resistance. The experiences from the past few years on the stock exchange have been confirmed by the recent sluggish trading.
Headwind came on Tuesday from the economy. Stock market professionals are again taking a more skeptical view of the German economy over the next six months, as the ZEW index for August published at midday shows. Accordingly, the index fell by a further 1.5 points to minus 55.3. Economists polled by Reuters had expected stagnation.
“The ongoing high increase in consumer prices and the expected additional costs for heating and electricity are currently weighing on the prospects for consumer-related economic sectors in particular,” said ZEW expert Michael Schröder. Helaba specialist Ulrich Wortberg made a similar statement. “The expectation balance is at its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.”
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The low trading volume is currently particularly striking. Only 25 million papers were traded until late Tuesday afternoon. This is an extremely low value. On Monday, too, there were just under 38 million papers by the end of trading.
In the last stock market week, never more than 60 million Dax shares changed hands. According to data provider Refinitiv, the average trading volume was 64 million shares last month, and 86 million since the beginning of the year.
So investors are currently staying on the sidelines and processing the past price rally. Within a few weeks, the Dax gained around 1400 points. As a result, investors held back for a long time. However, the Dax has now made up for the initial setback after this rally.
The fact that the main risk factors on the economic side have not worsened speaks in favor of new price gains. These include, for example, the fear of a recession in the most important economic areas and the negative consequences of the turnaround in interest rates. This allowed a kind of sustainable floor to form on the stock market.
On the other hand, there is a lack of positive impulses. The balance sheet season was comparatively strong – but many companies remain cautious in the medium term. Inflationary pressures also appear to be abating, although inflation rates remain at a very high level. As a result, this combination leads to persistent lack of movement in the leading stock market index.
After all, a safety net has formed on the underside: from the hedging transactions of private and professional investors. For example, the Euwax sentiment indicates that private investors are extremely hedging against price losses. The behavior of professionals is similar.
If prices fall, the players will liquidate their positions and support the market with their purchases. If even the so-called short speculation is unwound when prices rise, it would fuel price gains further.
The chart technique also provides optimistic indications on the underside. The Dax was recently able to break away from the 100-day line just over 13,700 points, which indicates the medium-term trend. The 200-day line, the signal for the long-term trend, is at 14,500 points and is therefore out of reach for the current stock market week.
Oil prices continue to fall
On the oil market, Brent and WTI prices remain under pressure. After the significant losses on the previous day, the prices for the North Sea variety and for the US variety WTI fell again by up to one dollar on Tuesday. Brent and WTI are now about the same as they were before the Ukraine war broke out.
At the start of the week, the economic warning signals from China weighed on the oil market, as did US indicators from the second row. The weakening demand is additionally depressed by the high price level, say experts.
At the same time, the offer could soon be expanded if the nuclear agreement with Iran is revived and sanctions against the country are relaxed in return. Libya, on the other hand, has already begun to produce more oil.
Individual values in focus
Delivery Hero: The food delivery service expects gross merchandise value to increase by seven percent in the third quarter compared to the April-June period. The group confirmed the figures for the second quarter published in July and the clouded outlook. Analysts at US bank JP Morgan gave a positive rating to the outlook for the third quarter and statements on profitability. In an interim report, the Jefferies analysts continue to rate the share as “buy” and confirm the extremely optimistic target price of EUR 95.
All of this seems to be going down extremely well on the stock exchange: the shares in the MDax have at times risen to their highest level in six months. In the late afternoon they are five percent higher at 52.50 euros.
Home24: The online furniture retailer has significantly lowered its sales expectations. In the current year, revenues could fall by up to seven percent and, in the best case, increase by three percent, the company announced on Tuesday. So far, Home24 had promised an increase of between two and 17 percent. In the second quarter, revenues fell 9 percent to almost 152 million euros, while the adjusted Ebitda margin climbed 1 percent thanks to savings. After initial losses, the share turned clearly into positive territory. Most recently, it was 8.5 percent higher.
Rheinmetall: Armament assets are moving up the buy list at Investors. The Rheinmetall share listed in the MDax and Hensoldt in the SDax gain up to five percent.
Phillips: Management change at the medical technology group from the Netherlands: Roy Jakobs will succeed Frans van Houten as President and CEO in mid-October. Philips titles rise almost three percent on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange.
BHP: The mining giant is appealing to investors with surprisingly strong earnings and a record dividend. The shares of the largest mining group by market value rose by five percent on the London Stock Exchange. Higher coal and copper prices gave BHP its highest profit in 11 years.
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