Paris, Berlin When he was inaugurated for the second time, Emmanuel Macron only completed the compulsory program: the French President received dignitaries in the Élysée Palace on Saturday, walked through an honor formation of the army and had the traditional 21 cannon shots fired. The ceremony was more modest than five years ago, when Macron first moved into the Élysée Palace at the head of a new center alliance.
In his speech, Macron promised to include the desire for change in the country. The French had given “a new mandate to a new president”. Macron, it seems, wants to reinvent itself as version 2.0 for the next five years.
However, the promise of renewal relates primarily to domestic politics and the style of government. Macron wants to seek more consensus and appear less aloof in order to counteract the division in society.
In Berlin, where the President is expected on Monday evening for his first visit abroad after re-election at the end of April, people are still adjusting to the old Macron. The Frenchman’s decision to go straight to the chancellor’s office at the start of his second term speaks for this continuity.
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Ukraine war is the focus
A spokeswoman for Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) said the talks will deal with the consequences of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and future Franco-German cooperation. SPD parliamentary group leader Achim Post told Handelsblatt: “The fact that President Macron is visiting Berlin so shortly after his re-election shows the joint Franco-German will to shape things in and for Europe.”
That was “a really important signal in difficult times”. France and Germany would have to coordinate closely in the coming weeks – both on the issue of sanctions against Russia and arms deliveries to Ukraine and on strengthening European security policy and joint defense capabilities.
Around 6 p.m. on Monday evening, Macron arrives at the Chancellery. A one-on-one meeting, a joint press conference and a working dinner are planned. From Élysée circles it was said that the first trip abroad to Berlin was part of the Franco-German tradition and underlined the importance of further cooperation between the two countries in the EU. “This year it’s a particularly symbolic sign because the trip takes place on May 9, Europe Day,” said a senior Macron adviser.
According to the information, the talks should be about how Europe can become more independent of Russian energy supplies but also in future areas such as the digital economy and space technology. The status of the joint Franco-German armament projects should also be discussed. The Élysée Palace rejected speculation that Scholz and Macron could travel to Kyiv together this week. “That is not planned at all at this point in time,” it said.
Debate on EU debt rules
Scholz and Macron are also likely to discuss a sensitive issue between the two countries: the future handling of public debt in the EU. After the pandemic, France’s debt level is over 110 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), last year the budget deficit was 6.5 percent of GDP. Macron’s government is aiming for a reform of the European budgetary rules.
The French consider the 60 percent criterion for national debt to be obsolete, and the three percent limit should be handled more flexibly. The ideas are met with skepticism in the federal government, especially in the finance ministry led by the FDP.
From Élysée circles it was said that Macron would “probably” address the issue on Monday. However, it is still too early for an in-depth discussion of the debt rules. Based on the spring economic forecast, the EU Commission will make a proposal in May as to when the budgetary criteria suspended due to the pandemic should apply again. If Brussels decides to leave the rules suspended beyond the end of 2022, “that would give us a little more time to reform”.
The government in Paris is aiming to gradually bring the deficit back below three percent in the coming years. However, Macron’s new domestic policy focus on strengthening purchasing power could thwart this goal with expensive spending programs – especially if the president has to reach out to his political opponents.
Macron was lacklusterly re-elected in April, and right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen received more votes than ever. The left-wing fringes in France are also gaining strength: last week, left-wing populist EU critic Jean-Luc Mélenchon lured the moderate Socialists and Greens into a new alliance that could pose a threat to Macron in the parliamentary elections in June.
Domestic political headwind for Macron
The President is also trying to change his image with a view to the parliamentary elections: he renamed his party La République en Marche (The Republic in Motion) Renaissance (Rebirth). But should Macron, with allied centre-right and center-left parties, fail to secure a majority in the National Assembly, he would be effectively forced to form a government with a prime minister from a different political camp.
The leader of the new left alliance is a staunch opponent of Macron’s pro-European course.
(Photo: Reuters)
Mélenchon is warming up for this role. The left-wing populist calls for “European disobedience” towards Brussels – i.e. disregard for EU law if this is necessary in certain cases for the implementation of the national agenda.
Macron, on the other hand, wants to continue the pro-European orientation of his first term. Before meeting Scholz in Berlin, he will travel to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Monday afternoon. There the final report of the “Conference on the Future of Europe” will be handed over, an attempt at European citizen participation in which people from all member states thought about reforms in the EU. Macron then wants to talk about his own reform ideas in a speech to the European Parliament.
“We know that not all member states are convinced of the need to convene a convention for treaty reform,” says the Élysée. However, a revision of the European treaties with a reform of the institutions is a “prerequisite” for other countries to be able to join the EU. For example, the principle of majority voting in the European Council must be extended to social and fiscal policy. There, individual states can currently block decisions with a veto.
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