Last minute! CBRT Announced March Interest Rate Decision! Here is the Surprise Decision!

CBRT announced its interest rate decision for March 2024.

CBRT Monetary Policy Committee set interest rates in March. It increased by 500 basis points to 50%. The expectation was that the policy rate would be kept constant at 45% in March.

What Was the Dollar’s Reaction to the Interest Rate Decision?

As you may remember, in previous meetings it was stated that the low interest policy would be abandoned and interest rates would be increased.

At this point, while the CBRT continues to increase interest rates, the dollar is traded at 32.40 TL after the decision.

CBRT’s statement regarding the latest interest rate decision is as follows:

“Yaşar Fatih Karahan (President), Osman Cevdet Akçay, Elif Haykır Hobikoğlu, Hatice Karahan, Fatma Özkul.

The Monetary Policy Committee (Board) decided to increase the one-week repo auction interest rate, which is the policy rate, from 45 percent to 50 percent. The Board also changed the operational framework and decided to determine the Central Bank’s overnight borrowing and lending rates with a margin of -/+ 300 basis points compared to the one-week repo auction interest rate.

The main trend of monthly inflation in February was higher than expected, led by services inflation. While imports of consumer goods and gold slowed down, contributing to the improvement in the current account balance, other indicators for the near term point to a continuing resilient course in domestic demand. The rigidity in services inflation, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks and food prices keep inflation pressures alive. The Board closely monitors the compliance of inflation expectations and pricing behavior with forecasts and the effects of wage increases on inflation.

The Board decided to increase the policy rate, taking into account the deterioration in the inflation outlook. The tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until a significant and permanent decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is achieved and inflation expectations converge to the predicted forecast range. If a significant and permanent deterioration in inflation is predicted, the monetary policy stance will be tightened. Determined stance in monetary policy; It will reduce the main trend of monthly inflation through balancing in domestic demand, real appreciation in the Turkish lira and improvement in inflation expectations, and disinflation will be established in the second half of 2024.

The Board continues to implement macroprudential policies in a way that protects the functionality of the market mechanism and macro financial stability. In this context, financial conditions were tightened and monetary policy transmission was supported with the regulations made during the month. In case of unforeseen developments in loan growth and deposit interest, the monetary transmission mechanism will continue to be supported. Liquidity developments will be closely monitored and sterilization tools will be used effectively when necessary.

The Board will determine policy decisions in a way that will reduce the main trend of inflation and provide monetary and financial conditions that will bring inflation to the 5 percent target in the medium term, taking into account the lagged effects of monetary tightening.

Indicators regarding inflation and its main trend will be closely monitored and the Board will resolutely use all the tools at its disposal in line with the main goal of price stability.

The Board will make its decisions in a predictable, data-driven and transparent framework.

“The Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Summary will be published within five business days.”

*This is not investment advice.