Washington US President Joe Biden had to postpone a meeting with Jens Stoltenberg until this Tuesday. Actually, he should have met the NATO Secretary General in the White House on Monday, but Biden’s root canal got in the way. But if both politicians catch up on their conversation, they are likely to focus on NATO’s support for Ukraine.
Charles Kupchan, former Europe director on the White House National Security Council under Barack Obama, told Handelsblatt that the US government had “formed a remarkably stable transatlantic coalition that was not necessarily to be expected at the beginning of the war”.
But the role of the US as the mainstay of Ukraine’s defense is under threat. Most US citizens are critical of longer-term support. Biden’s Ukraine strategy has also met with criticism in the US Congress.
How long will US military aid last, how realistic are peace negotiations – and why does Biden have a Ukraine problem in his own family?
The US is still the mainstay of Ukraine’s defence. Since the outbreak of war, the United States has approved $113 billion in military, economic and humanitarian funds, followed by the EU ($67 billion) as the second largest donor. Biden emphasizes that Europe can be sure of American support.
He and large parts of the US government want to prevent a Russian victory at all costs, including for reasons of geopolitical deterrence against China. “I believe that we will have the funds available for Ukraine as long as it is necessary,” the US President said last week.
The US is the main supplier of arms to Ukraine.
(Photo: VIA PAVLO NAROZHNYY via REUTERS)
But the longer the war goes on, the more difficult it will be for Biden to maintain support for his Ukraine course. Some Republicans in the US Congress want to block new Ukraine aid. The budget talks will begin there in late summer.
Most Democratic and Republican lawmakers and senators support the transfers. About half of US citizens are also in favor of the Ukraine funds, even if support for them has declined slightly since the beginning of the war.
But the time factor should not be underestimated. There is a debate on Capitol Hill about how long US production can keep up with Ukraine’s wear and tear.
>> Read here: Grenades or empty phrases? The dubious ammunition promise of the EU
Kupchan, who is now a security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said Western support is not expected to last at current levels. “When providing ammunition, air defense or tanks, we come up against limits, although we produce at the highest level.”
The delivery of heavier weapons, such as fighter jets, is a red line that the US President has not wanted to cross so far. His government is pursuing a so-called “containment strategy”: it wants to limit the war to Ukraine and not bring about a direct military conflict between Russia and the West.
Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that providing long-range ammunition could lead to a third world war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, made it clear that these US weapons are considered absolutely necessary in order to be able to push back Russia on the battlefield.
Western countries are reaching their limits in the production of military goods.
(Photo: Reuters)
Calls are now growing louder from Congress to provide Ukraine with so-called ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems), which, with a range of 350 kilometers, have a range of almost four times that of Ukraine’s existing missiles.
A letter from a group of bipartisan MPs says the war has turned into a grueling conflict. “We can and must help break this stalemate.”
Washington is now watching with anticipation Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive against Russia. The Biden government fears that if this is not very successful, political support for the Ukraine aid could collapse.
2. Pushing for peace negotiations
Closely linked to military aid is the question of an “exit scenario” and an alternative to endless trench warfare. Biden is in a constant risk assessment here. Because the US government does not want to put pressure on Selenski. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized: “Russia alone can end this war.”
The US government’s goal is to put Ukraine in a strong negotiating position for possible peace talks. Zelenskiy has stressed that he will only negotiate a peace solution with Putin if he completely withdraws his troops.
Ukraine is dependent on aid from the West.
(Photo: AP)
At the same time, it is in Biden’s highest interest that the Ukraine war end as soon as possible. “This war has polarized the international system and divided the world into two camps, causing a lot of global disruptions such as energy and food shortages or unrest in parts of the third world,” Kupchan said.
He argues that the West must be more proactive in pursuing a “Plan B”: a clear diplomatic strategy “aimed at a ceasefire and subsequent territorial negotiations.”
The security expert believes that the pressure on Biden to pursue such a solution will increase no later than the 2024 presidential election year. According to a Brookings think tank poll, most Americans can only imagine supporting Ukraine for “the next year or two,” but not for long. The debate about possible peace solutions could come up again at the NATO summit in Vilnius in early July.
3. The Hunter Biden case
A Google search for “Biden” and “Ukraine” in the United States does not bring up articles about fighter jets or military aid. Instead, there are unflattering photos of the 53-year-old president’s son, Hunter Biden. Years ago, his previous business relationships in Ukraine were suspected of having a potential conflict of interest.
Hunter Biden joined Burisma’s board of directors in 2014. The Ukrainian energy company was then run by an oligarch who was under investigation for corruption at the time. Hunter Biden is said to have received around $1.5 million from Burisma for his work, while his father, as Vice President, coordinated the Obama administration’s policies in Ukraine.
More Handelsblatt articles on the war in Ukraine:
Joe Biden emphasized that he was in no way involved in his son’s business, and Hunter Biden later described working for Burisma as a “bad decision”.
The president’s son has trouble with a previous engagement in Ukraine.
(Photo: AP)
An FBI paper was circulated in Congress last week purporting to prove that Joe Biden, as Burisma’s vice president, was paid $5 million for cultivating U.S.-Ukraine relations. The authenticity of the paper has not been confirmed and is highly controversial.
At the same time, the federal Justice Department is investigating other allegations against Hunter Biden, including allegedly not paying taxes on time and buying a gun at a time when the president’s son was a drug addict. In connection with the recent federal indictment against Donald Trump, some US Republicans have accused the judiciary of treating the Bidens and Trumps unequally.
More: Trump wants to use indictments for his presidential campaign