The US shot down the balloon with an infrared-guided air-to-air missile from an F-22 fighter jet.
(Photo: dpa)
The diplomatic scandal surrounding the launching of a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon over US territory illustrates the fragile state of relations between the two nuclear powers. There is a growing danger that a conviction will take hold in both the US and China that a military confrontation between the two superpowers is inevitable.
Many an expert is already reminded of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. At that time, a nuclear war between the USA and the Soviet Union was threatening.
Such an escalation between the nuclear powers USA and China must be avoided at all costs. The lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis could help to defuse the current conflict: channels of communication must be kept open at all costs to prevent the situation from deteriorating further.
That is why US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s cancellation of the planned trip to Beijing was wrong. Especially if it is true that China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping agreed to a meeting. That would have been a remarkable signal from the state leadership.
In the US, on the other hand, they seemed convinced that not much can be expected from Blinken’s visit to China. Rather, President Joe Biden’s administration apparently feared that diplomatic talks with the autocratic Chinese leadership could be used against the ruling Democrats domestically.
>> Read here: Taiwan, Russia and new sanctions – These are the top five bones of contention between China and the US
China is already a “toxic issue” in US politics. There is currently nothing to be gained politically in the USA by moving closer to the People’s Republic. Anti-China rhetoric is likely to intensify among both Democrats and Republicans in the upcoming US election campaign.
China balloon provoked over US territory
There is no question that a Chinese aircraft in US airspace is a provocation, especially over a militarily sensitive area. It is incredible that this is a civilian research balloon, as China claims. Especially since the transition between civil and military use is fluid in the one-party dictatorship.
The escalation triggered by the balloon still raises questions: Why was it flying over US territory now of all times? Why did the Pentagon only make its discovery public shortly before the planned Blinken visit, even though the suspicious object had been located earlier? Why is the discovery making such waves when such aircraft from China have already appeared over US territory in recent years? Are we, quite literally, dealing with a test balloon that Beijing wants to use to test how far it can go?
It will come as no surprise to anyone that the two world powers are spying on each other. Espionage is part of the political craft, especially for two nations struggling for global supremacy. China is the greatest geopolitical threat to the US, and the Chinese accuse the Americans of impeding the rise of the People’s Republic with a new cold war.
The mutual provocations become more frequent. Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack has enraged China’s leaders. The Communist Party regards the self-governing island as part of its territory and is pushing for “unification”, if necessary by force.
With her visit to Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, accepted an escalation of the conflict. China responded with an unprecedented military display by the People’s Liberation Army across the Taiwan Strait. Pelosi’s successor Kevin McCarthy has announced that he will also travel to Taiwan.
Military presence in the South China Sea
China, on the other hand, is asserting increasingly aggressive territorial claims not only against Taiwan, but also in other parts of the South China Sea. But the USA is also expanding its military presence in the region. Most recently, they secured access to additional military bases in the Philippines. Beijing also sees the military-political merger with Japan, India and Australia under the name Quad as a threat.
>> Read also: These are the top five bones of contention between China and the US
China’s rhetorical backing for Russia is also causing controversy. The government accuses the United States of having started the Ukraine war. The US government suspects China of secretly supporting its partner Vladimir Putin.
Recently, the Americans have also tightened the economic thumbscrews. The US government wants to make it more difficult for China to access high-tech semiconductors and is imposing ever tougher technology sanctions. In this way, the modernization of the Chinese military should be prevented, according to Washington. The Netherlands and Japan have joined the export restrictions on modern machines for chip production, also under pressure from the USA. Concern is growing in Europe about being drawn into the conflict.
The relationship between the two world powers is worse than it has been since diplomatic relations were established in 1979. China and the US need to keep talking right now, even on the most sensitive issues like Taiwan. A new Cuban Missile Crisis must be prevented.
More: USA shoots down suspected spy balloon – China criticizes “use of force”