Gyor The opposition’s election campaign event in Gyor is over, but the big screen will remain in front of the Trianon memorial until Sunday, monitored by two security guards. The music video for “A hatalom a népé” runs on it: the Alliance of Orbán opponents has chosen the catchy cover version of Patti Smith’s “People Have the Power” as their anthem. The two of them are not particularly tense when they say that “probably paid” vandals tried several times to turn off the electricity.
Most people pay little attention to the status, although the song encourages some to listen. But the opposition needs all of its attention if it wants to endanger the ruling party Fidesz in the last few days. The big appearance of the top candidate Peter Marki-Zay the day before gave the campaign a boost, says the candidate of the six-party alliance in the constituency of Györ, Zita Jancso: “We feel the mood of change.”
Shortly before the national parliamentary elections on Sunday, however, it is doubtful how strong the will of Hungarians is to vote out Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been in office for twelve years. While the polls are notoriously politicized, they consistently show a slight lead for the government camp.
The opposition, which is united for the first time, has succeeded in suppressing its internal tensions. But she is struggling with her weak program and an opponent who has significantly more resources and overwhelming media power.
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Still at stake is Fidesz’s constitution-amending two-thirds majority of 133 parliamentary seats, which gave democratic legitimacy to the build-up of this dominance. Analyst Adam Sanyo, who runs the Tactical Voting website, sees only 67 seats as relatively secure for Fidesz and 39 for the opposition. A third of the remaining 93 constituencies, including that of the city of Györ, are undecided.
If Orbán’s opponents want to have a say again after twelve years, they need victories in these tight races. The seat in the sixth largest city of Györ is considered vulnerable because Fidesz candidate Robert Balazs Simon secured his re-election in 2018 against a then fragmented opposition with less than half of the votes.
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We met the candidate in Györ for an interview. However, Simon subsequently withdrew all statements because he was dissatisfied with critical questions and only agreed to use it on condition that the article was adapted to his ideas. Attempts to mediate through contact persons at Fidesz failed.
The governing party could be confident, as Simon is seven percentage points ahead of his challenger in polls. Fidesz, which also provides the mayor, can score with the economic dynamism of the city, which is quite prosperous and growing thanks to an Audi car factory with over 12,000 jobs. “We not only need a city that is developing, but also one that is worth living in,” counters the locally well-established entrepreneur Jancso. She calls for solutions to the traffic problems and a decentralization of competences in education and health.
Opposition accuses Fidesz of clientelism
Jancso and her comrade-in-arms Timea Glazer from the social-liberal Democratic Coalition party are trying to make national issues understandable for the local population. This includes the clientele economy in the environment of powerful Fidesz circles. “Like an octopus, these businessmen have their arms all over the city economy,” says Glazer. The practices in Györ mirrored those in the country on a small scale.
“We feel the mood of change.”
(Photo: AP)
They refer to the allegedly targeted allocation of public projects to loyalists as well as a sex scandal with a prostitute and insider trading in a land purchase that almost cost the conservative mayor his re-election in 2019. He later resigned over the affair. The fact that the public prosecutor’s office saw no basis for an indictment in January is seen by the opposition as an indication of their politicization.
The local Fidesz representatives react extremely thin-skinned to the topic and see the allegations as nothing more than a political attack.
Simon avoided direct confrontations in debates during the election campaign – like Orbán, who does not even publicly name his opponent. Fidesz can afford to do this because it relies on mobilizing its core constituency, which is much larger and more homogeneous than the opposition. The governing party also knows that by responding to their arguments, they would give their opponents a platform that they would otherwise not have.
As a result, the campaigns play out in parallel public spheres. The grass-roots democratically organized and at times cacophonous opposition mobilizes primarily via Facebook, campaigns on the streets and can count on the critical sympathy of some internet media. Fidesz spreads the messages set out by Orbán and the party headquarters via public broadcasting, thousands of large-format posters and the several hundred media brought together in a foundation close to the government.
Fidesz conducts distant election campaign
The Fidesz election campaign in Györ seems distant. Robert Balazs Simon speaks to the media about public safety, plays the first pass at a women’s soccer match and chats with a driver about new Volvo buses supplied through a central government investment programme. There are hardly any spontaneous events. Not even Orbán’s visit, which underlines the importance of the district, was publicly announced in advance.
The Fidesz party leads in polls just ahead of the alliance of opposition parties.
(Photo: Reuters)
Zita Jancso’s polemical assertion that she has to explain to many people that Simon is the local member of parliament does not seem entirely implausible. Most local Fidesz candidates pale in comparison, basking in the glory of the popular leader Orbán, who promises continuity and stability, and are elected as his representative.
Simon’s political statements on Facebook are also largely Orbán quotes: “Whoever votes for Fidesz votes for peace. Whoever votes for the left votes for the war,” reads one of these core messages against the background of the Ukraine war.
The fact that the claim that Marki-Zay will send Hungarian troops to the neighboring country after a victory has no real political basis and is based on a distorted statement is irrelevant: the point is to portray the opposition and the resulting change of power as an existential threat to Hungary – with Orbán as the sole anchor of security in stormy times.
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