One thing unites investors in the US and here: they hardly ever make big bets.
(Photo: dpa)
Dusseldorf The discrepancy between investor sentiment in the US and Germany remains. In the US, sentiment is too optimistic to think about selling rather than buying. In Germany, on the other hand, the great skepticism continues to give room for buying opportunities.
This is shown by the current evaluation of the Handelsblatt survey Dax sentiment and other indicators. Investor sentiment is used as a counter-indicator: if many investors are optimistic, they have already invested. Then only a few are left who could still buy and thus drive prices up.
So should investors now sell US stocks and invest in German paper? “No,” says sentiment expert Stephan Heibel, who evaluates the weekly Handelsblatt survey. “Because the different moods in the two countries have their reasons.”
On the other side of the Atlantic, the key interest rate is well above inflation, an impending recession appears to have been averted and investors are cheering the price gains on the stock markets. “However, the mood indicators for the USA are now so high that it is difficult to believe that prices on Wall Street will continue to rise over the long term,” says Heibel.
In Germany, on the other hand, the key interest rate is still below the inflation rate, the threat of a recession is still present and investors are skeptical about the price gains.
Hardly any big bets
“The USA is currently in a much better position, so I would like to see buying opportunities on Wall Street,” says Heibel. In Germany there are already buy signals from the perspective of sentiment analysis, but the great skepticism in Germany is justified in his view. Because when it comes to combating inflation, Germany is lagging behind the USA. As a result, the European Central Bank (ECB) is under more pressure to raise interest rates further.
One thing, however, unites investors in the USA and in Germany: They hardly ever make big bets. With the exception of US fund investors, who have increased their investment quota, all investor groups remain cautious. They want to enjoy the summer slump without particularly great risks.
The polarization that still existed in the two previous weeks decreased. The sideways movement in the past week with Dax values between 16,000 and 16,200 points calmed the situation. The prices of the previous winning shares gave way, while the other papers caught up a little.
But investors shouldn’t lean back, because the current low volatility, with which many investors weigh themselves in a false sense of security, harbors the risk of an impulse in one direction or the other.
In contrast to the previous weeks, such a directional impulse should quickly fizzle out again given the current mood. Because there are only a few investors who are wrong and have to act after a new directional impulse.
Current survey data
With a value of plus 1.1 points, the mood remains at a moderately positive level (previous week plus 1.9). Because the Dax was able to stay above the 16,000 mark in the past week, which contributed to a good mood among the survey participants. In the weeks before there was always a change of mood. There is also complacency with a value of plus 0.7, albeit at a low level.
The future expectation remains unchanged compared to the previous week at minus 0.4 in the pessimistic range. Bears dominate the expectation of the Dax courses in three months, the current price level is perceived as too high. And so there is hardly any willingness to invest with a value of minus 0.1. However, data from AnimusX’s more extensive sentiment survey shows that the investment ratio has steadily decreased since April.
The Euwax sentiment of the Stuttgart Stock Exchange, where private investors trade, has fallen to plus one after plus three in the previous week. This means that the number of call leverage products in private investor portfolios is roughly the same as that of put derivatives on the Dax.
Institutional investors who hedge themselves via the Frankfurt derivatives exchange Eurex are also currently behaving neutrally. The put-call ratio is plus 1.5.
In the US, the put-call ratio on the Chicago futures exchange CBOE signals easing demand for call speculation. The put hedges from 2022 were removed by April. The current value of the put-call ratio of the CBOE is to be classified as neutral at 0.8.
US fund managers have increased their investment ratio to 99 percent. This is the highest investment rate since November 2021, i.e. in a year and a half.
The bull-bear differential for US private investors is at plus 30, which is the greatest optimism in a year. In the calculation, the proportion of pessimists is subtracted from that of optimists. Currently, 51 percent of private investors are bullish. This is offset by a bear share of 21 percent.
The “fear and greed indicator” of the US markets, which is calculated using technical market data, has been showing extreme greed for several weeks at a value of 80 percent. Accordingly, investors should act cautiously.
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