Berlin It rarely happens that Moritz Schularick is at a loss for words. Last Thursday was such a day: The economist is sitting on a stool in the State Museum in Bonn. There he is asked what drives him in his research: social responsibility or fun? Neither Schularick nor his two fellow discussants have an ad hoc answer ready. Laughter erupts in the audience, first from some, then from everyone, including those on stage.
Then Schularick still finds his answer: “There’s fun, but there’s also responsibility.” The latter could become significantly more important for the economist in the near future. Not only is his research budget increased by 2.5 million euros through the Leibniz Prize he received in Bonn. A new task could also be pending soon.
According to Handelsblatt information, he is at the top of the wish list for the office of President at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). The 47-year-old is the man of the hour in German economics. His assessments are in demand, not only in science, but also in politics. His innovative methods are shaking up the economic landscape. And Schularick brushes across, says clearly what he thinks – which doesn’t just make friends. In this way, the economist also allows himself to turn down offers that others have been waiting in vain for their entire lives.
Germany has six major economic institutes. Two of them are looking for a new president: the Frankfurt Leibniz Institute for Financial Market Research (SAFE) as well as the IfW. And both institutes want Schularick.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
Kiel or Bonn, not Frankfurt
He is still in Bonn not only for award ceremonies, but also for work. Schularick has been teaching and researching there at the university and at the Cluster of Excellence Econtribute since 2012. Negotiations with the SAFE were already well advanced – until Schularick recently canceled. “The SAFE is a great institute, but Bonn offers a research environment for economists like no other university in Germany,” says the economist in an interview with the Handelsblatt. You need good reasons to leave.
Schularick is silent on whether the presidency of the IfW would be such a reason. When Gabriel Felbermayr, who has now emigrated, became president there three years ago, his name had already been on the wish list. This time he is said to have been in third place. After the Frankfurt economist Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln and Markus Brunnermeier, who teaches at the US elite university Princeton, canceled, Schularick’s hour could have come.
The special thing about Schularick: He also sees himself as a historian. He is known for his insights into how conclusions about future financial crises can be drawn from the past. He observed a threat to financial stability, especially after periods of strong growth. Schularick’s perspectives “fundamentally improve our understanding of the crisis,” says Katja Becker, President of the German Research Foundation. A federal official says Schularick’s knowledge of financial crises would have fitted the SAFE well. Another person named the IfW as the best place. There he has many points of contact with the historical approach, for example with research director Christoph Trebesch.
With Schularick at the helm, the venerable IfW would get a fresh coat of paint. The macroeconomist makes no secret of the fact that he dislikes German economics and political advice. The German scene is internationally uncoupled. Schularick studied in Paris and did research in Cambridge, Harvard and New York. “It’s not good for a country to be advised by people who are hardly visible in international scientific discourse,” criticizes the economist. There is an international consensus on many issues. “In Germany you can ignore that and still be a sought-after consultant.”
The harsh judgment is also a reaction to the debate about an energy embargo against Russia. Shortly after the beginning of the war, Schularick and eight other researchers calculated the consequences of a halt to the supply of gas, coal and oil for Germany. The result: an immediate embargo is “manageable”. Since then, Schularick has sharply criticized the fact that the federal government refuses to do so. “He has a very brash attitude,” says someone close to the government. A senior economist added that he wasn’t sure whether Schularick would still get such good offers after his drumming for an embargo.
“Low fun factor”
What infuriates Schularick even more than the government’s rejection is how it came to this conclusion. The Economics Ministry often refers to analyzes by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK), which is financed by the trade unions. Schularick considers his calculations to be questionable and badly done. He speaks of an “echo chamber” made up of industry and politics. “The embargo dispute has revealed a culture war between a younger, internationally networked generation and the long-established German economists, who are closely linked to politics.”
He does not fall on open ears in top politics. On the contrary, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) called the embargo calculations by Schularick and Co. “irresponsible”.
That didn’t stop the economist from taking a clear position. Despite the cons, the study was important – even if, in view of Scholz’s statements, as Schularick said at the award ceremony in Bonn, “the fun factor was initially low”.
More: The world economy is increasingly getting out of joint. There are many reasons for that. Economists warn of global stagflation.