We are on the anniversary of the 7.0 magnitude (according to the American Geological Research Center) Izmir earthquake that occurred on October 30, 2020. Due to the earthquake, 1279 buildings were damaged, 8 buildings were destroyed. We waited for one more hopeful person to come out of the rubble on the screen for days, we were delighted with miracle salvation stories like a baby on the moon, but unfortunately we lost 117 of our citizens in this disaster.
We were angry at the negligence, the contractors and the authorities, but when we look at the point reached, we cannot say that very big steps have been taken. Turkey is a land of earthquakes and even as you read this, it is very possible that you will feel an earthquake at any moment. Especially İzmir and its surroundings are fragmented by faults, There are about 70 faults.
Last year’s earthquake was 70 km from Izmir and at sea, The real big fault passes right under the city center. So this earthquake is expected to be much more destructive. We would like to raise awareness by conveying the opinions of experts about this sleeping giant called the İzmir fault. Here is detailed information about this fault and the dangers it poses:
“Izmir’s earthquake risk is not over yet. A bigger earthquake may strike the city, which has been standing on a fault that has not been broken for 352 years, at any moment.”
Triangular surfaces developed on the ridges cut by the İzmir fault in the vicinity of Balçova Agamemnon thermal springs (looking southwest).
On behalf of the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA), who examined the faults in İzmir 12 years ago and said, “I am horrified when I see the high buildings in Bayraklı and Balçova,” one of the former engineers of MTA, Dr. Ismail Kuscu, Izmir’s earthquake risk is not overOn the contrary, he states that it is necessary to be prepared for a much larger earthquake.
Stating that the earthquake that occurred 70 km away from İzmir last year was not the expected major earthquake for İzmir, Dr. Kuscu, Izmir Fault that has not been broken for 352 years He states that he is on the bridge and that when that fault breaks, much bigger disasters will occur.
“That fault has not been broken since 1668. When it was broken 352 years ago, Izmir was flattened.”
General view of the İzmir fault in the Balçova region. Right fore dip fractures correspond to artificially altered fault scarps (looking east).
According to Kuşçu; although these Even though it’s perceived as a doomsday facts to be told. Since the fault, which has not been broken for 352 years, can break at any moment, these regions will easily collapse. Even sea fossils will be found if drilling is done under buildings rising on extremely soft ground.
Izmir Bay along the south coast Bornova, Göztepe, land crossing in variant and the large fault that has not yet broken enters the sea a little west of Göztepe. Between Güzelbahçe and Pınarbaşı, the İzmir fault is a 35 km long dip-slip normal fault, and the fault bifurcates at its western end. When this fault broke in 1668, Izmir was flattened. If the fault 70 kilometers away affected İzmir so much, breaking the fault inside the city would cause terrible destruction.
prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir: 70 percent of the buildings built in the plain area of the city are destroyed.
İzmir fault cutting the basement rocks near south of Agamemnon hot spring (looking east).
17 faults on land and nearly 50 faults in the sea exist, that these 6.5 to 8 in size Saying that he is ready to produce an earthquake, Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir said, “If the İzmir fault is broken, it will produce an earthquake of at least 6.5-7. The deaths and damages it will cause will be very large. 70 percent will collapse‘ he warns.
Reminding that the İzmir fault mostly passes through the coastal areas and there is more construction there, Sözbilir said, “The fault will affect the plains close to the sea the most. In Güzelbahçe, Narlıdere, Balçova, Göztepe, Konak, Karşıyaka, Bayraklı, Bornova, Bostanlı, Menemen there will be more damage. The Elevator, Girls’ High School and Police House area are the most effective areas of the fault. People living here are sitting on the İzmir fault,” reminding the danger that awaits in sleep.
Explaining that the master plan of the city should be reconstructed, the scientist said, “The master plan is important. We work on the plan where it will destroy and how it will cause damage when an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 produces it. Institutions determine all the buildings in that area, implement urban transformation, demolish them, according to the plan. or no new construction.When the fault is broken, the buildings are built according to the plan, nobody dies when the area is planned according to the fault. The plan made 20 years ago should be revised. This is not enough, cooperation should be started with all institutions and implementation should be started,” he calls everyone to duty.
There is also the possibility of a tsunami in Turkey.
Sözbilir said, “After the Bodrum earthquake, we started to investigate the tsunami history in Turkey. We determined where, how and how many meters long a tsunami would be created if nearly 50 faults in the sea were broken. For example, if there is an earthquake of 7.5 or 8 in Crete, tsunami waves will occur. It hits Antalya in 1 hour and reaches Antakya and Adana regions after 1.5 or 2 hours. It will hit Izmir in 1.5 hours” says.
The Izmir fault has caused the death of nearly 20,000 people before.
According to the records, it is highly probable that the earthquake of 10 July 1668, among the historical earthquakes affecting the city, was caused by the İzmir fault. Intensity I0=X It is noteworthy that the damage distribution in this earthquake, which was defined as the It is reported that nearly 20,000 people died in the earthquake in the city center of Izmir. The surface deformations given in relation to the earthquake do not define the surface rupture on the İzmir fault.
During the earthquake, the Sancak Castle was buried in the ground as a result of the surface deformations that occurred in the İnciraltı locality at the tip of the Narlıdere fan delta, approximately 3 km north of the Balçova segment, and that the castle was 30 meters towards the sea. shifted and turned into an islet is described. As a result of the earthquake, observations are listed that some collapses occurred along the coast in the city and the sea progressed towards the land.
prof. Dr. Naci Görür, on the other hand, states that İzmir is more sensitive to earthquakes than before:
“As geoscientists, we are still waiting for an earthquake in İzmir. Especially on the İzmir fault, that is, the southern boundary fault of the Gediz graben comes into İzmir as İzmir fault. The fault that will produce the main earthquake is the İzmir fault. That fault hasn’t broken yet. If it breaks, it can produce a magnitude 7 earthquake. Last year’s Izmir earthquake actually happened on the Kusadasi Bay. That earthquake is not Izmir’s expected earthquake. This earthquake, by transferring stress to the surrounding faults or changing its level, may have loaded it in some and delayed it in others. I think that it may have significantly affected the north-south directional faults, especially on the Izmir peninsula. I can say that İzmir has become more sensitive to earthquakes compared to the past,” he said and gives similar warnings.
In order not to experience much greater pain We urge the authorities to take action; Risky structures on the fault line should be strengthened, earthquake taxes should be used where necessary, contractors who build rotten buildings to earn more should not be allowed. Citizens, on the other hand, should have their buildings checked by taking into account the neighborhood-fault-building-ground factors and prepare themselves for what to do during and after the earthquake. Your life is more precious than anything!
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