How Erdogan could use refugees as leverage

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

The Turkish President declared the border with Greece “open” in 2020.

(Photo: AP)

Athens Concerns about a new refugee crisis are growing in Greece. Since the beginning of this week, more than 600 people have tried to take boats from the Turkish coast to the EU countries Greece and Italy. The number of irregular crossings is also increasing at Greece’s land border with Turkey: According to Greek authorities, around 350 people try to cross the border river Evros – Meric in Turkish – every day.

Greek Citizen Protection Minister Takis Theodorikakos, responsible for border protection, said this week that the government would “not allow anyone to enter Greece illegally, either via the Evros or the islands – everyone should take note”.

The Turkish head of state Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used migrants politically in the past. In February 2020, Erdogan declared the border with Greece “open” and allowed tens of thousands of migrants to cross the border bring.

For weeks people stayed at the checkpoints on the Evros. Greece and the EU border protection agency Frontex used tear gas and water cannons, killing a migrant with a bullet. It was only four weeks later that Erdogan had the people brought back inland in buses.

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Now relations between Greece and Turkey are heading for a new low. Athens has reported an increasing number of Turkish fighter jets flying over Greek islands in recent days. Last Friday, two Turkish F-16 jets came within 4.6 kilometers of the northern Greek port city of Alexandroupoli. Turkey, for its part, accuses Greece of airspace violations over Turkey’s Aegean coast.

For decades, the two NATO partners have been fighting over the economic zones and sovereign rights in the eastern Mediterranean. The controversy brought both countries to the brink of military conflict in the summer of 2020. Greek and Turkish warships, ready for battle, entered the disputed sea areas. A military confrontation was avoided with the mediation of the then Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). Both countries agreed to withdraw their navies.

With the increase in military flights, the tone in Ankara is also getting sharper. Earlier this week, Erdogan attacked Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis: “For me, Mitsotakis no longer exists,” Erdogan said in a TV speech. “Never again” will he meet the Greek head of government. Erdogan’s coalition partner, the ultra-nationalist party leader Devlet Bahceli, followed suit: the Greek Prime Minister was a puppet of the West, “treacherous” and “cowardly”.

F-35 fighter plane

The US refuses to supply Turkey with stealth jets of this type.

(Photo: dpa)

The reason for the tirades was a visit by the Greek prime minister to Washington. Mitsotakis spoke to US President Joe Biden last week about the procurement of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, among other things. The United States is refusing to supply Turkey with the same stealth jet because Erdogan had bought Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.

>>Read here: Europe in crisis mode: A continent is arming itself

Now Erdogan is trying to get F-16 jets as a replacement. But there is also resistance to this in Washington – not only because of Turkey’s increasingly aggressive behavior towards Greece, but also because of the Turkish military offensives in northern Syria, which are controversial under international law.

In a speech before the US Congress, Mitsotakis said the last thing NATO needs now is “a new source of instability on its southeastern flank.” Without naming Turkey, the Greek prime minister asked MPs “to consider this when deciding on arms shipments to the eastern Mediterranean”. Erdogan sees this as a breach of his promise: At a meeting in Istanbul in mid-March, Mitsotakis promised not to involve any third party in the Greek-Turkish dispute.

EU Commission expects “respect for neighbors”

The Greek Prime Minister reacted to Erdogan’s statements at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday: “We are Turkey’s neighbors, we need to talk to each other and we will never break off communication from our side,” Mitsotakis said. “But if President Erdogan believes that I will not defend Greece’s sovereign rights, then he is mistaken.”

>>Read here: Visiting Washington: Greece’s Prime Minister is looking to close ranks with the United States

A spokeswoman for the European Commission said that Turkey was expected to take a “constructive stance” towards member states and “respect for its neighbours”. The next test for Turkish-Greek relations is already a few weeks away: the state-owned Turkish oil company TPAO has announced new gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean for July. Then the conflict over mineral resources could escalate again.

More: LNG terminal: Greece is becoming the hub for gas in south-eastern Europe

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