He who has the raw materials has power – Handelsblatt Morning Briefing

I learned from the German Mineral Resources Agency while researching our weekend report that almost half of the world’s total mine production is concentrated in China. If the lights are already threatening to go out when it comes to gas, one wonders what will happen if China grabs Taiwan – and what sanctions and counter-sanctions can be expected. Investors reflected along similar lines and withdrew $17 billion from the small island off the mainland in the first three weeks after Putin’s attack.

On eight pages we document the new “raw material poker” – and the dependence of German industry. Incidentally, the first major “commodity partnership”, which Europe concluded in the summer of 2021 full of hope, has fallen under the rollers of tanks in the last four weeks – it was aimed at Ukraine.

The world economy is in a supply shock, the old globalization is at an end. Ifo boss Clemens Fuest sees “stagflationary forces at work” in the Handelsblatt interview. Heavy weather is brewing. The Munich economist says in detail about…

• the federal government’s crisis management: “It was certainly right to introduce sanctions quickly and together with our international partners and to increase arms spending. The federal government was initially too hesitant about the sanctions, as it was about the arms deliveries.”
• the traffic light’s recent gasoline tax cut: “A third of this goes directly into the coffers of the mineral oil companies, which already earn well. The rest goes primarily to households with above-average incomes, which later have to pay the crisis soli. You could have saved yourself that. It would have been better to specifically help long-distance commuters and companies with very high fuel costs.”
• European industrial policy: “I’m skeptical about that. We are now very proud of the new chip factory in Magdeburg. But it was bought with expensive subsidies. An analysis would show that producing everything at home cannot be a solution. Simply because it is incredibly expensive. It is smarter to diversify sources of supply.”

From this text one learns that the wrong ones benefit, which is probably due to the “Matthew effect” from the Gospel: “Whoever has, will be given, and he will have in abundance. But whoever does not have, even what he has will be taken away from him.”

“Ein Kessel Buntes” was a cheerful TV entertainment show from the GDR that even made it to the Soviet Union. Handelsblatt chief economist Bert Rürup now also sees the federal government’s current resolutions to relieve the burden on citizens as “Kessel Buntes”. And it’s also true: the three coalition parties had previously let the rattle rattle for different proposals, which are now supposed to cheer up the frightened public in a different form.

Mutation one: The SPD’s “mobility money” becomes a one-time “energy price flat rate” of 300 euros. Mutation two: Christian Lindner’s “tank discount”, which is suitable for beer tents, becomes a temporary petrol price reduction of 30 cents, which is carried out through taxes. Only in the case of the Greens, nothing mutates: the subsidized local transport ticket dedicated to them has little to do with their political “permanent” petrol money.

All in all, there is something for almost everyone in this pre-Easter package, says Rürup, but the state cannot protect its citizens from expensive energy in the long term: “Even higher national debts will have to be paid by someone at some point.”
Or: Even a pot of colorful things costs money.

In Europe, magic land has not burned down, but was launched with jubilation late last night. The magic is that the supremacy of the US monopolies Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft should no longer be tested in lengthy competition procedures, but simply prohibited a priori. A list of 20 behaviors serves this purpose – which includes, for example, that large platforms do not prefer their own services or do not misuse the tons of customer data.

Negotiators from the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers have agreed on this new law for digital markets (DMA), which should bring more competition. However, the German Cartel Office President Andreas Mundt is not subject to this magic. Weeks ago he pointed out in the Handelsblatt that cartels are also prohibited, but still occur and end up in court. This is likely to end again when the giants from Western America, with their columns of consultants and lawyers, come up with particularly innovative ideas for securing power.

My cultural tip for the weekend: “C’mon C’mon”, a film by Mike Mills about a New Yorker’s falling in love with his nephew Jesse, whom he has to look after for a few days in an emergency. It’s a touching black-and-white work set in a touching time, starring a great Joaquin Phoenix and Woody Norman as a nine-year-old boy. A gentle comedy runs through the little games between the questioning, doubting child and the radio journalist who ended up in the role of surrogate father. In the end, it’s easily enough for 108 minutes of cinema.

And then there is the football team of Italy, which Europe was still enthusiastically cheering on in the summer of 2021. The “Squadra Azzurra”, as the blue shirts are often called, became European champions, the elegant trainer strutted across the lawn and nothing seemed to disturb this happiness. But even the great Francois Villon asked again and again in his “Ballad of the women of yore”: “Where is the snow from last year?”

But Italy’s aura flowed away in the 92nd minute of a game against North Macedonia last night. The opponent scored the 1-0 winning goal and the reigning European champion can no longer take part in the World Cup in Qatar in November/December. Italy missed two World Cups in a row. In such an hour we learn from Theodor Fontane: “Parting words must be as short as declarations of love.”

I wish you a lovely weekend.

It greets you cordially
Her
Hans Jürgen Jakobs