Frightening ‘Inflation’ Forecast for Turkey from Goldman Sachs

The previous day, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced inflation data for 2021. The latest inflation data for 2021, 36.08% on an annual basis It showed an inflation. While this value is above Turkey’s year-end inflation expectations, the Inflation Research Group, on the other hand, claimed that annual inflation was 82.81%, not 36.08%.

While the rate of inflation, which increased with the effect of foreign exchange in the last 3 months of 2021, was a matter of discussion, entering 2022 with large hikes caused hopes for 2022 to be dashed. Today, the US-based international investment bank from Goldman Sachs A frightening statement came about the year 2022.

“Inflation will exceed 40% in the first three months of 2022”

Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to customers:With the seasonally adjusted monthly inflation surprisingly rising to 13.6%, inflation in Turkey has increased. will exceed 40% in the first quarter And we expect it to stay at that level for most of the year.” statement was included. In other words, according to Goldman Sachs, inflation in Turkey will exceed 40% between January and March 2022.

On the other hand, there was also a frightening statement about the value of the Turkish Lira. In the same note, the bank said:Considering the volatility in TL, inflation forecasts uncertainty is unusually high and upward. We maintain our opinion that the policy rate of 14%, supported by administrative and partial fiscal measures, will not be successful in balancing the TL in a sustainable manner.” was shared.

With this “While we do not have a strong belief that this will happen, given that the authorities continue with the extraordinary policy choices they have chosen to stabilize the TL, our forecasts are that interest rates will rise sharply in the second quarter.He pointed out that Turkey will increase interest rates.