Frightening 2022 Inflation Forecast from JPMorgan

Especially the last months of 2021 were quite difficult for Turkey and its citizens. The dollar, which was 8.28 on 1 September, exceeded 18 TL on 20 December. Inflation also accelerated due to the spectacular depreciation of the Turkish lira against all currencies. TURKSTAT has set the annual inflation rate to be above expectations. 36.08%; Inflation Research Group 82.81% had declared.

While the uncertainty about how the year 2022, which we entered with big hikes, continues, the international banking giant Goldman Sachs announced that the inflation rate in Turkey has increased. expects it to exceed 40% in the first quarter of 2022. had explained. While this statement is already frightening, another banking giant today from JPMorgan The explanation has come.

Inflation is expected to be 55% in May:

Expressing that Turkey’s economic theory backfires, JPMorgan reached its highest level since 2000. stated. The world’s largest bank explained the reason for the increase in inflation as follows:

“The unorthodox economic views of leading policy makers, the CBRT’s early and front-loaded monetary easing resulted in worsening inflation expectations, and more importantly, the sharp weakness in the exchange rate led to a sharp increase in inflation in Turkey in December.”

Yarkın Cebeci from JPMorgan’s Emerging Markets Economics and Policy Research Department, in the report he published yesterday, followed the December data. They revised their inflation forecasts for 2022 and 2023 upwards. expressed. Cebeci explained the new expectation as follows:

“Inflation at 55 percent in May. We expect it to peak, stay around 50 percent until November, and decrease to 35 percent by the end of 2022.”

He stated that they revised their inflation forecasts for the end of 2023 to 15%. Cebeci, for these estimates risks are still on the upside also added.