Following the US inflation data that directly affected the cryptocurrency market, there were significant changes in interest rate cut expectations in March and May.
US inflation data February 13 The day was announced above expectations and a small-scale retreat was observed in the cryptocurrency market. Inflation data on an annual basis 2.9% above expectation 3.1% With the announcement as follows, expectations for interest rate cuts in March and May were also repositioned.
According to data from CME FedWatch US Federal Reserve (FED) While the probability of keeping interest rates constant in March was seen as only 53% in January, this rate increased with the latest inflation data. to 92% rose.
In other words, the market began to consider it almost certain that the FED would not make a change in interest rates in March. Already Fed Chairman Powell In his statement at the end of January, he emphasized that no interest rate cut should be expected for March.
On the other hand, expectations for a potential interest rate cut in May also decreased with these statements. for the month of may 50% Interest rate cut expectations above up to 36% While it decreased, the market’s expectations focused on June. Possibility of FED cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June to 51.8%the probability of reducing by 50 basis points is 25% reached its level.
Interest rate decisions, which are critical especially for risk products such as cryptocurrencies, can change suddenly due to many macroeconomic and local events. Although the postponement of the interest rate cut creates tension in the market, Powell’s plan for 2024 His promises that there will be 3 discounts It still continues to inspire confidence.
FED will cut interest rates Bitcoin And positive for cryptocurrencies While it is interpreted as a development, the postponement of the discount date increases the tension in the market. On the other hand, while some analysts argue that the expectation for the discount has already been priced in, others think that there is no early pricing situation since the first discount has not even occurred yet.