Berlin The Bremen political scientist Lothar Probst sees little chance for a Jamaica coalition led by CDU leader Armin Laschet. “I assume that the exploratory talks with the Union will not last too long and that the Greens and FDP will enter into coalition talks with the SPD relatively quickly,” said the expert on party and election research in the Handelsblatt.
As the second strongest partner in a three-party alliance, the Greens have already made it clear that they “clearly favor the traffic lights, and the SPD is also pushing the pace”.
Probst admitted that there had been no favorites in the polls among the possible coalitions for a long time. “But voter perceptions change under the influence of election results and the opportunities that arise from them,” he explained. In addition, SPD frontman Olaf Scholz is in the favor of voters both in terms of trust, sympathy and competence, well ahead of the Union.
“In a traffic light alliance, two parties would also be represented with strong Greens and also strong Liberals, which on the one hand flank the social competence of the SPD in terms of climate competence and on the other hand economic competence.” He is therefore assuming “that a traffic light coalition with Olaf Scholz will be at the top in late autumn”.
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On the other hand, Probst sees difficult times ahead of CDU boss Laschet. “If he does not succeed in saving himself as Chancellor in a Jamaica coalition, his political fate is sealed,” he said. “As a Lame Duck you will hardly make him chairman of the parliamentary group.” Also at the top of the CDU one will think about a renewal.
Read the full interview here:
Mr Probst, the Union suffers a historic defeat in the federal election and Armin Laschet still believes that he can form a government. How did he get that?
It is the last glimmer of hope for the CDU to remain party to the Chancellor. Above all, however, Armin Laschet’s political career depends on whether he succeeds in forging a Jamaica alliance against all expectations. However, given his weak starting position, his failure is inevitable.
Laschet is now saving himself for the time being in talks with the FDP and the Greens. The SPD is also holding talks with the small parties at the weekend. What are the biggest sticking points for a Jamaica alliance or a traffic light coalition?
The SPD and the Greens know each other from many coalitions in the federal and state levels and have a large pool of programmatic similarities. This concerns essential points of climate policy, but also of social security in society.
And that could go with the Liberals?
The FDP only fits into this scheme to a limited extent and will certainly be a cumbersome partner. Nevertheless, the FDP cannot afford to refuse participation in the government again.
Where do you see intersections with the other two traffic light partners?
There are similarities with the Greens and the SPD in terms of the Federal Republic’s foreign policy orientation, the necessary digitization, the expansion of public infrastructure and civil rights. There are contradictions above all with regard to tax and financial policy – taxes up or down, the debt brake – and with regard to the breadth and depth of state regulation.
How is it between the CDU and the FDP?
Both parties also know each other from many coalitions at federal and state level. Armin Laschet rules the largest federal state with the FDP and both parties tick similarly when it comes to economic, financial and tax issues. In the Jamaica Alliance, the strengthened Greens would be the problem, who would certainly offend the FDP with their ideas on climate policy. The hurdles between the parties are also relatively high in economic, financial and transport policy.
Both a traffic light and a Jamaica coalition therefore harbor potential for conflict. Against this background, is it realistic that the exploratory talks can be concluded quickly?
The parties have learned a lot after the failed exploratory talks in Jamaica after the last election. There are now preliminary talks, explorations and then coalition talks. However, it is already becoming apparent that it will result in a traffic light coalition.
What is it that makes you so sure?
I assume that the exploratory talks with the Union will not last too long and that the Greens and FDP will enter into coalition talks with the SPD relatively quickly. In addition, as the second strongest partner in a three-party alliance, the Greens have made it clear that they clearly favor the traffic light, and the SPD is also accelerating.
According to a recent survey by Infratest dimap, significantly more people trust a coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP to make a new political start than an alliance of the Union, Greens and FDP. How come
For a long time there was no favorite in the polls among the possible coalitions. But voter perceptions change under the influence of election results and the opportunities that arise from them. In addition, Olaf Scholz is well ahead of the Union in terms of trust, sympathy and competence in the electorate’s favor. In a traffic light alliance, two parties would also be represented with strong Greens and also strong Liberals, which on the one hand flank the social competence of the SPD in terms of climate competence and on the other hand economic competence.
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Because of Angela Merkel’s long term as chancellor, doesn’t the Union necessarily stand for a fresh start?
The Union has not managed to succeed Angela Merkel well. The current chancellor is partly to blame for this. She hesitated too long to arrange her successor. For many years, Merkel was the guarantor of the Union’s electoral success at federal level. But this has long been a creeping erosion process, which was particularly evident in state elections, but also in some cases in the case of poor results in the 2009 and 2017 federal elections.
At first it did not appear that the SPD would have a government option. How do you explain the comeback?
Despite the initially bad poll results, the SPD maintained calm and unity after Olaf Scholz’s nomination and in the final phase led a chancellor election campaign with a poster campaign that was tailor-made for him. The weakness of the competitors Laschet and Baerbock helped that this strategy was successful. Because only Scholz was among the three with many voters as chancellor.
Did the SPD also convince with topics?
The SPD has cleverly linked the person Olaf Scholz with the issues that have been lost in recent years due to the climate catastrophe and Corona, but play a role in many people’s everyday lives: rents, pensions, minimum wages. In addition, culturally divisive topics such as gender politics have been cleverly kept out of the election campaign. Above all, this also brought points in the east.
Among other things, the Union has campaigned against the SPD by warning of a left slide. That didn’t catch.
Olaf Scholz does not exactly stand for a left swing of the SPD, and he has always made it clear that he thinks nothing of the foreign policy ideas of the left, but also of their socio-political ideas. The Union’s warning therefore came to nothing and was a desperate but useless attempt to make up ground in the final phase of the election campaign.
The left in the SPD, however, with four dozen Jusos in the new parliamentary group, it is now fairly well represented. Can that be a problem for Olaf Scholz?
Just as the left ex-lawyer Kevin Kühnert was not a problem for Scholz, the almost 50 lawyers will be a problem for him. The SPD owes its electoral success mainly to him, and others, including the Jusos with more radical ideas, will have to submit to him.
Olaf Scholz will especially have to make concessions to the FDP. On the other hand, there is party leader Saskia Esken and party vice-president Kevin Kühnert. How do you assess the role of leading SPD leftists?
Both Esken and Kühnert have brought Olaf Scholz into the position of candidate for chancellor. They know about the historic chance that the SPD, after many years of abstinence, can once again become the Chancellor’s party and that compromises with the FDP will have to be made. In this respect, they will leave the decision on the coalition question to him and ensure that one or the other left social democrat is taken into account at the ministerial level. They will also try to include a few of their favorite projects in the coalition agreement.
Kühnert has already criticized the FDP’s financial concept as a voodoo program. Doesn’t that have to be a deterrent for many liberals?
The Liberals and Christian Lindner want to govern. To do this, they have to cut back on their maximum demands in tax and financial policy, but on the other hand they can also demand prices from the SPD and the Greens. As a result, there are unlikely to be any major tax increases. In addition, Lindner wants to occupy the Ministry of Economic Affairs and use it to conduct FDP clientele policy.
Nobody is talking about a new edition of the grand coalition at the moment. Shouldn’t the Scholz or Laschet be seen as a kind of fallback option if nothing else works?
Neither the SPD nor the CDU can afford another grand coalition after election results well below 30 percent. That would be the final nail in the coffin of the people’s parties, which are already shrinking parties and feel the breath of other, hitherto smaller parties on their necks. The tripartite negotiations are therefore doomed to success – in whatever coalition.
When will we have a government?
I assume that a traffic light coalition with Olaf Scholz will be at the fore in late autumn.
And what will become of Armin Laschet?
If he does not succeed in saving himself as Chancellor in a Jamaica coalition, his political fate will be sealed. As a Lame Duck, he is unlikely to be made chairman of the parliamentary group. Perhaps he will then withdraw to his role as Prime Minister until next year’s election in North Rhine-Westphalia. But even that is in the stars, because no party wants to go into the next election campaign with a loser. Also at the top of the CDU one will think about a renewal – that would then be the third chairman within two years.
More: What lessons the Greens and FDP draw from 2017