Dusseldorf Energy expert Aurélie Bros believes that Russia is pursuing a strategy of “dewesternization” – and not only in energy issues. Part of the strategy includes turning to the Asian market such as China. This included a strengthening of trade relations and the inclusion of technologies that are produced there. This is intended to reduce dependency on western technologies and encourage the promotion of in-house institutes.
“On the one hand, Russia knows that natural gas production in the EU is falling,” Bros said in the new episode of Handelsblatt Today. This increases the EU’s dependency on Russia, since the energy transition is not progressing as quickly as many climate activists would like. On the other hand, Russia has understood since 2014 that it is heavily dependent on the USA and the EU, since everything in the natural gas sector is traded in dollars and euros.
Gas dispute: “Putin bluffs when in doubt”
The G7 countries reject Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand that future gas imports be paid for in rubles only. From Bros’ point of view, it would have been a mistake to get involved: “Putin bluffs when in doubt and is just as dependent on the revenues as Europe is on energy.”
But the basic problem remains: Germany is dependent on gas from other countries. According to the Federal Association for Natural Gas, Oil and Geoenergy, domestic natural gas production in 2020 covered just under 5.2 percent of Germany’s needs. The rest was imported from countries like Russia, Norway and the Netherlands, with Russia contributing the lion’s share.
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Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck was in Qatar last week to set an example in the search for alternative gas suppliers. However, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad el-Kaabi pointed out that short-term gas deliveries that correspond to the Russian import volume to Germany are currently not possible.
Dealing with Russia: “Putin only understands strength”
Bros objects that in Germany it is almost always forgotten that energy solidarity is a legal obligation. The mutual support mechanisms had been set up at EU level since the 2009 Russian-Ukrainian crisis and had been continuously expanded. “Germany is not an island, but very well connected to the neighboring countries,” says Bros. She demands: “We have to solve the problem at European level. No Member State will be able to do this alone.”
Bros advises the following for dealing with the Russian President: “Putin only understands strength – we should show this together now.” And: “I have always heard that Russia plays chess and that there are crass, strategic thoughts behind it. But I think they’re more likely to play poker.”
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