Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay says that most altcoins like Bitcoin and MATIC will witness an increase in volatility following the CPI data on October 13. What are the critical upside and downside levels that could signal the beginning of a trending move in bitcoin and altcoins? The analyst examines the charts of the top 10 cryptos to find out the answer to this question.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
cryptocoin.comAs you follow, the Fed is aggressively raising interest rates to cool down inflation. This puts the US stock markets under pressure. Investors are watching inflation figures closely for signs of early exit. But in vain.
Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in September, beating Dow Jones’ forecast for a 0.2% increase. This shows that inflation has not yet responded to the Fed’s monetary tightening. All eyes are now on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on October 13.
Equity investors can expect volatility to increase after the numbers are released. But for crypto investors, it’s hard to predict whether this trigger is enough for Bitcoin (BTC) to break out of the $18,500-$24,500 range where it has been stuck for the past few days. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and ADA analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is trying to bounce off the first support at $18,843. However, the relief rally is likely to hit a wall at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($19,482). If the price breaks down from this resistance, it will indicate that the bears are selling on the rallies.
A break and close below $18,843 is possible to push the price towards the $18,125 and $17,622 support zone. The bulls are expected to defend this area with all their might. Because if they don’t, BTC is likely to continue its downtrend. BTC is likely to drop to $15,800 and then to $15,000 later. The first sign of relief for the bulls will be a break above the downtrend line. BTC’s recovery could gain momentum once it climbs above $20,500. It is also possible that this could set the stage for a rally to $22,800.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH fell below the symmetrical triangle on October 11. But a positive sign is when the bulls buy the dip and try to push the price back into the triangle on Oct.
The 20-day EMA ($1.339) is sloping down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in negative territory. This shows that the bears are under control. Sellers will try to stop the recovery at the 20-day EMA. If the price breaks from the current level or the 20-day EMA and dips below $1,267, it will suggest a resumption of the downward move. It is possible for ETH to drop to the next support at $1,109 later. The first sign of strength will be a breakout and closing above the triangle. This is likely to pave the way for a possible rally to the resistance line of the channel.
Binance Coin (BNB)
BNB formed a Doji candlestick pattern on October 11, signaling indecision between the bulls and bears. Buyers are attempting to start a recovery from the $266 support.
The bounce in the moving averages is likely to face stiff resistance. If the price declines from the current level or moving averages, a drop to the strong support at $258 is likely for BNB. The bulls are expected to fiercely defend this level. Because a break below this and a close is possible to bring BNB down to $216. Another possibility is for the price to rise and break above the moving averages. This is likely to clear the way for a potential rally to the hard overhead resistance of $300.
Ripple (XRP)
The failure of XRP to break the overhead barrier at $0.56 on Oct. 9 likely pulled short-term traders into profit bookings. This brought the price down to the 20-day EMA ($0.47) on Oct.
If the rebound fails to break above $0.51, it indicates that the bulls are not seeing the dip as a buying opportunity. It is possible that this will increase the probability of a break below the 20-day EMA. If this happens, the selloff is likely to intensify and XRP drops to the breakout level of $0.41. The bulls are likely to forcibly defend this level. Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises and rises above $0.51, the bulls will again strive to push XRP above $0.56. If they can achieve this, it is possible for XRP to rally to $0.66.
Cardano (ADA)
ADA fell sharply and broke below the critical support of $0.40 on October 10. More sales followed on October 11. This brought the price down to $0.38. A break and close below $0.40 marks the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
Buyers have an opportunity to salvage the situation by quickly pushing the price above the $0.40 breakdown level. It is possible that this will trap aggressive bears and the ADA rises to the 20-day EMA ($0.42). Conversely, if the price drops from $0.40, it indicates that the bears have turned the level into resistance. This is likely to increase the chances of a continuation of the downtrend towards the next major support at $0.33.
SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC and SHIB analysis
Left (LEFT)
SOL broke above the moving averages on October 10. However, this proved to be a bear trap. The price quickly declined and broke below the support at $31.65 on October 11.
Buyers bought the dip and are trying to push the price above the $31.65 breakout level. If they succeed, the SOL will rise back to the moving averages. It is possible that the bears will try to stop the recovery at this level again. The falling moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that the bears have the upper hand. A break and closing of the support below $30 increases the probability of a drop to the vital support at $26.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE fell close to the support line on Oct. This made the bulls buy as seen from the long tail on the candlestick. Buyers are trying to push the price above the moving averages on October 12.
If successful, DOGE is likely to rise to the overhead resistance at $0.07. This level is likely to act as a strong barrier again. However, if the bulls surpass this, DOGE is likely to gain momentum and rally to $0.09. Alternatively, if the price drops from the moving averages, it will indicate that the bears continue to sell in the rallies. This is likely to push the price back towards the support below $0.06. If this level gives way, it is possible for DOGE to listen to the June low near $0.05.
Polkadot (DOT)
The DOT broke above the 20-day EMA ($6.40) on Oct. However, the bears have aggressively sold higher. This dragged the price below the close support at $6.25.
The bears will now try to push the price down to the critical $6 level. This is an important level for the bulls to defend. Because if the support is broken, it will likely signal the resumption of the downtrend of the DOT at $6.25. The next support on the downside is $5.36. The 20-day EMA remains short-term resistance to watch out for on the upside. If the bulls push the price above this hurdle, the DOT is likely to rally into the overhead zone between $6.64 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($6.79). A break above this zone would likely lead to a strong rebound.
Polygon (MATIC)
MATIC failed to break above the downtrend line on October 10. This shows that the bears continue to defend the level vigorously. It’s also possible that this pulled the profit booking from short-term traders who pushed the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.80) on Oct.
MATIC buyers are trying to stop the decline and push the price above the moving averages. If they do, the bulls are likely to make another attempt to break through the overall hurdle on the downtrend line. Repeated testing of a resistance level tends to weaken it. If the price breaks above the downtrend line and sustains, the MATIC could attempt a rise to $0.94. On the other hand, if the price breaks from the moving averages or the downtrend line, the MATIC could drop to $0.75 and then to $0.69.
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
SHIB fell sharply from the 20-day EMA ($0.00011) on Oct. Thus, it broke below the close support at $0.000010 on Oct.
The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory. This shows an advantage for the bears. The current recovery is likely to face strong selling again at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from this resistance, a break below $0.000010 becomes more likely. SHIB is likely to start a decline towards $0.000007 later. To avoid this bearish outlook, buyers will need to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. It is possible that this could open the doors for a possible increase to $0.000014.
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