In terms of trade in goods, the omicron wave has so far primarily posed a threat to China.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin According to the IfW Institute, world trade will increase at the beginning of 2022 despite ongoing traffic jams in container shipping. Regardless of the aggravated Corona situation and global supply bottlenecks, world trade gained momentum in January compared to the previous month and is now even exceeding the pre-crisis level, the Kiel economists announced on Monday.
“In terms of trade in goods, the omicron wave has so far primarily posed a threat to China.” Around eleven percent of all goods shipped worldwide are currently stuck in traffic jams. In addition, there are around eleven percent fewer goods than usual in the Red Sea – the most important trade route between Europe and Asia.
“Beijing’s tough zero-Covid policy is a risk for the local economy,” explained Vincent Stamer, who is responsible for the Kiel Trade Indicator barometer at the IfW. It is to be feared that delays in China’s container handling would also affect Europe’s trade.
“The Chinese New Year and the hosting of the Olympic Games are a test for China to ensure that the pandemic situation and thus the economic outlook do not deteriorate.”
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Trade in the west has so far been spared from the omicron wave. US exports in particular increased significantly in January, but imports are likely to have fallen slightly. According to the Institute for the World Economy (IfW), a sideways movement is emerging for the EU with a slight increase in exports and a mini-minus in imports.
For Germany, the prospects for both exports (+1.2 percent) and imports (+0.8 percent) are positive. “Despite the omicron wave, world trade is booming like never before,” emphasized Stamer. “The ongoing supply bottlenecks are therefore an expression of an extremely rapid increase in demand that supply cannot keep up with.”
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