Dusseldorf Once again, the Dax successfully passed the test of the 15,000 point mark. With a daily low of 15,011 points, the German benchmark index has already checked the aforementioned threshold for the third time – with success. The Dax ultimately went 1.1 percent higher at 15,194 points from trading.
The Frankfurt benchmark is still facing a directional decision. If the index falls sustainably, i.e. at the daily closing price, below the mark of around 15,000 points, there is likely to be a significant sell-off afterwards.
According to the sentiment analysis, however, the focus is more on the upside. And today’s price gains could be the starting signal for a relief rally. In the past two days of trading, the leading German index tested the 15,000 mark twice – and found it to be good.
The low point on Friday was 14,984 points, on Monday it was 15,016 points. This triple, successful test supports the view of the sentiment analysis that there will be a relief rally on the Dax, the stock market barometer climbs a few hundred points upwards.
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Because many investors have dissolved their short speculations in the past few trading days. The money released was only partially used to buy shares. This means that there is enough cash available for further purchases.
In addition, the willingness of investors to buy has risen to a new twelve-month high. “At the beginning of this week we should at least see a clear reaction after the sell-off,” said sentiment expert Stephan Heibel after evaluating the Handelsblatt survey Dax Sentiment this Monday.
A rise above Friday’s high of 15,263 points would be from a technical perspective provide the starting signal for an intermediate recovery. According to the chart technique, the next target is 15,552 meters. After that, investors should deal with the question: is this backlash sustainable?
The high trading margins of the past few days are evidence of extreme nervousness and uncertainty on the markets. This can also be seen in the volatility index VDax, the so-called nerve barometer of the markets. The higher this index is quoted, the higher price fluctuations can be expected by professional investors in the next 30 days.
In the past 30 days, the VDax has risen by around 40 percent, compared to the lows in mid-August, the plus is around 50 percent. Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners observed: “The longer the phase of increased fluctuations lasts, the more the nervousness increases.”
The fact that investors get nervous has to do with the fear of losses. Since the beginning of November 2020, the start of the so-called vaccine rally, the Dax has risen by around 38 percent. No wonder that more and more investors are afraid of losing these profits again – and throwing their shares out of their portfolios.
To make matters worse: since the end of the corona crash, many new traders have bought shares. So far, they have only seen one correction in October of last year, otherwise almost all prices have risen. So it is questionable whether they will keep their nerve in October 2021.
The focus is again on the corona winners
One indicator of how the young traders act in the market is the performance of the so-called Corona winner papers. These stocks are popular with this audience because they rose faster than other stocks during the stock market rally after the end of the coronavirus crash. These include titles such as Delivery Hero, Hellofresh, Varta or Shop Apotheke.
A look at the performance shows, however, that many of these stocks have recently flown from the portfolios. Since the beginning of September, the Dax and MDax have fallen by around five percent, while Delivery Hero, Hellofresh and Varta have slipped by around 15 percent. The price of the shop pharmacy even fell by almost 20 percent.
The assumption is obvious: Many young traders have sold – even if the shares of Shop Apotheke and Hellofresh were able to gain significantly again on Tuesday. The shop pharmacy shares are now being driven up by short sellers who would have bet on falling prices and would now have to buy, said a trader.
The crisis surrounding the Chinese property developer Fantasia has little impact on the market. He was unable to repay a bond that had matured, adding to the burden on the country’s heavily leveraged real estate companies after the debt problems of the industry giant China Evergrande Group.
Fantasia Holdings Group Co. did not repay a bond due on Monday in the amount of 205.7 million dollars, as the group announced. Separately, real estate management company Country Garden Services Holdings stated that a unit of Fantasia has failed to repay a $ 108 million (700 million yuan) loan, also due Monday, and that a default is likely.
Look at the individual values
Tui: The new German head of the travel group, Stefan Baumert, sees an increasing normalization in travel bookings, especially in the demand for winter sports trips. “The demand is more or less the same as it used to be. The popular destinations are already tight over Christmas and New Year’s Eve, ”said Baumert of the Funke media group.
For the group, which had to be rescued from the corona pandemic with state aid, business had started well again this summer thanks to the successful vaccination campaigns. “All signs point towards normalization. After the months of Corona restrictions, our customers have a lot of catching up to do. ”However, the share fell 1.7 percent.
Infineon: The shares of the semiconductor manufacturer rose by 4.6 percent. The Munich-based company announced that it wanted to expand its investments in the middle of the chip crisis. The goals were above the expectations of the analysts, wrote Sandeep Deshpande of the US investment bank JP Morgan. Infineon is profiting from the booming demand for chips.
Grenke: The shares slipped by more than twelve percent in the morning and were now at 32.26 euros, their lowest level since mid-May. At the end of trading, the minus decreased to less than seven percent. Delivery bottlenecks adversely affected the leasing business in the third quarter. The company put new leasing business in the reporting period at 372.2 million euros after 517.6 million euros in the same period of the previous year.
Rational: At the end of the MDax, Rational’s shares lost 4.8 percent. Because of delivery problems, there is a question mark behind thousands of oven deliveries at the commercial kitchen supplier, wrote analyst Sebastian Kuenne from the Canadian bank RBC.
Bitcoin climbs above the $ 50,000 mark
According to data from the Coinmarketcap website, the cyber currency Bitcoin is gaining ground and breaking the $ 50,000 mark. The course continued to hover around this threshold on Tuesday evening. Statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from last week that he wanted to regulate crypto currencies, but not ban them, continued to provide a tailwind. The increase in the direction of the round number also spurred Bitcoin enthusiasts on Twitter.
According to the latest data from the Handelsblatt survey, however, investor sentiment towards Bitcoin is mixed: The back and forth of the past few weeks and the uncertain situation regarding the future prospects of Bitcoin in China weigh on the crypto market.
The world’s most important cryptocurrency plunged up to 17 percent on September 7 after El Salvador’s experiment with Bitcoin – the largest test of the token’s usefulness in the real world – got off to a bumpy start due to technical problems with the official digital wallet.
For Sebastian Warnke from Boerse Stuttgart Digital Exchange, one thing is certain: “Sharply fluctuating exchange rates or skeptical currency watchdogs cannot seem to prevent crypto assets from already establishing themselves as a new asset class.”
Against this background, El Salvador’s financial experiment should continue to enjoy high attention and be a litmus test for the crypto asset class. “If the project succeeds in spite of all odds, there should be imitatorswho follow the example of the small Central American state – a domino effect with far-reaching consequences for the financial world“, Says Warnke.
What the Dax chart technology says
For three months, the Dax has moved between 16,000 points on the top and around 15,000 points on the bottom. Now the focus was on the sub-page, which for Jörg Scherer, technical analyst at HSBC Germany, had “a very strategic character”. Although the German leading index has now slipped below this mark several times, it is not sustainable.
At the beginning of the last trading week, a downward price gap was also torn. Such gaps arise when the highest level of a trading day has remained below the lowest level of the previous day and are considered a sign of weakness.
Specifically: Last Monday the lowest price was 15,552 points, the highest price on Tuesday was 15,542 points. As long as this gap remains open, i.e. the Dax does not reach 15,552 points, the technical situation remains tense.
Here you go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.