The Frankfurt stock exchange barometer is thus approaching its all-time high during the Ukraine war. Since the Russian invasion, the Dax has never been higher than 14,568 points.
The Dax is processing the news from Wednesday evening today: The US Federal Reserve announced a rate hike for the first time since December 2018. The central bankers are raising the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent. Up to six further rate hikes could follow later in the year. This would mean that the key interest rate would be in a range of 1.75 to 2 percent at the end of the year.
In addition, the monetary watchdogs want to start reducing their balance sheet, which has swollen to over nine trillion dollars, at one of the next meetings. They did not give a specific timetable. This would withdraw liquidity from the market.
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Nevertheless, the news was well received on the stock exchange: the most important indices, the Dow Jones and S&P 500, turned negative after the interest rate decision, but closed well in the black. “According to Fed boss Powell, the US economy is still bursting with strength and will not let a bit higher interest rates throw it off,” says analyst Jochen Stanzl from CMC Markets. “The stock market bought this argument yesterday.”
>> Read about this: First increase since 2018: US Federal Reserve initiates interest rate turnaround
The Dax, on the other hand, had already risen significantly before the interest rate decision. On Wednesday it was more than 500 points up, since the war low of March 7 (12,439 points) there are even more than 2000 points.
“The hope for peace in Ukraine is drawing many back onto the floor,” said Thomas Altmann, portfolio manager at asset manager QC Partners. “Equities are now coming back into fashion after the sharp sell-off. The number of the brave is growing. Others don’t buy out of courage at all, but out of fear of missing out on the price gains in the event of peace.”
From a technical point of view, Stanzl sees further recovery potential of a good 400 points in order to exploit the neutral price band upwards. “Then the situation must be reassessed.”
His assessment thus coincides with that of Martin Utschneider, Head of Technical Analysis at Donner & Reuschel. “For a noticeable relief, the Dax 40 would have to exceed the 14,980 mark,” says Utschneider.
Domestic investors as price drivers
International fund managers withdrew from the euro zone in the wake of the Ukraine war. That shows the survey of the Bank of America. While 30 percent of those surveyed there were still overweight in equities in February, it was now only 18 percent.
The fact that the Dax has risen so sharply recently is due to domestic investors, as a survey by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange shows. “The unbroken optimism among domestic private investors is understandable,” says Sentiment Joachim Goldberg, who evaluates the survey. “Because they are often forced to remain trapped in their still loss-making bullish positions.”
On the other hand, the mood among institutional investors is less conclusive. The lack of willingness to take profits could be an indication that the commitments underlying the optimism are rather small in volume.
oil price and dollars
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of Russian supply disruptions is driving oil prices up. The price of Brent from the North Sea rose by almost three percent to $100.81 a barrel. According to the IEA, the market could be short of three million barrels a day from April due to Western sanctions against Russia, three times as much as originally expected.
The dollar only benefited briefly from higher interest rates in the USA. The dollar index lost up to 0.3 percent on Thursday to 98.2890 points. On Wednesday evening it had turned positive in response to the interest rate decision. The euro was down 0.1 percent on Thursday at $1.1027.
individual values
The shares of the biotech company Evotec and the energy supplier Uniper each rose by almost five percent. The analysts at the brokerage firm Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. have upgraded Evotec’s shares to “buy” from “hold”, but have lowered the price target to 35 from 37.10 euros. Your colleagues from Citigroup change the rating for Uniper to “Buy” from “Sell” and lower the price target to 26.60 from 30.80 euros.
Volkswagen: Volkswagen has extended the production stop due to the corona lockdown at three plants in the northeast Chinese metropolis of Changchun by another day. The extension to four days is a precautionary measure, said a spokeswoman in Beijing on Wednesday. On the other hand, operations at a plant in Shanghai will resume on Thursday after a two-day delay. The share gained 0.9 percent.
Thyssen Krupp: The titles lose eight percent in the MDax after the industrial group suspended part of its annual targets due to the economic consequences of the Ukraine war. In addition, the company does not dare to forecast whether it can really implement a possible spin-off of the steel business.
Instone: A full-year result above its own targets gives Instone a boost. The shares of the real estate company rise by around three percent. According to the information, the company increased its sales by around 63 percent to 783.6 million euros. After-tax profit more than doubled to EUR 96.9 million.
Susan: The share of the Linux software provider loses more than four percent. Although the internationally active company with headquarters in Nuremberg continues to grow, the adjusted operating result (Ebitda) fell by 14 percent. The minus was related, among other things, to one-off effects from new accounting as a result of the takeover of the Rancher platform in the previous year. For 2022, Suse confirmed its forecast.
limit: The company, which specializes in leasing IT and office equipment, earned more in the past year and wants its shareholders to participate in the growth with a higher dividend. Net profit rose to 95 (previous year: 88.4) million euros in 2021 thanks to sales proceeds, without capital gains the result was 72.2 million euros, as Grenke announced. The stock is up more than 7 percent.
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