Dax climbs back up

If the gap is closed, the starting point before the brilliant one-day rally would be reached again, after which the Dax could quickly slide lower again. For the optimists among investors, the past few trading days have brought at least one pleasing result. There hasn’t been a new low since Monday this week – a first sign of a more stable market.

There are several signs that the stock market is beginning to bottom out. For example, Citigroup’s “Macro Risk Index” is at the level of the Lehman, euro or corona crisis. There is dramatic risk aversion among institutional investors. Values ​​greater than 0.5 indicate increasing risk aversion, values ​​less than 0.5 willingness to take risks. For Robert Halver, capital market expert at Baader Bank, “the current extreme value of 0.88 speaks for a bottoming out”.

But in order to turn this ongoing bear market rally into a sustainable upward movement, Halver believes that the cycle of sanctions and counter-sanctions must be broken. “We’re not that far yet,” he explains.

In an international comparison, Europe’s stock exchanges are particularly affected, with a valuation discount of a good 30 percent compared to the US competition. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the Dax has fallen by around four percent, while the US stock market indices have tended sideways. European companies are apparently more affected by the Ukraine war than overseas companies due to their geographical proximity, dependence on raw materials and cyclical nature.

“Compared to this handicap, which is also an investor-psychological handicap, the fact that they generate around two-thirds of their sales on other continents on average pales in comparison,” explains the expert. On a positive note, European equities would be investors’ first choice in resolving the conflict.

Today’s analysis by the technical analysts at HSBC Germany also offers some consolation. They looked at how things continued after such special price movements with even higher profits like last Wednesday. Most recently, there were major price increases in October/November 2008 during the financial crisis and at the end of March 2020 after the corona crash. The good news: In all cases, the German standard values ​​were clearly up twelve months later – on average even by more than 25 percent. However, the way there was initially very bumpy for the Dax after the significant price gains during the financial crisis.

Oil prices are treading water

The fact that the German stock market is stable also has to do with the oil price. In this case, the relationship is reversed. Crude oil prices hit new highs when Germany’s leading barometer fell to a new low for the year in the form of 12,348 points on Monday. The North Sea variety Brent cost $139.13 at times.

Oil prices hardly move this Friday. The North Sea oil Brent increased in price by 0.2 percent to 109.52 dollars per barrel. The US oil WTI is listed at 106.47 dollars per barrel 0.4 percent higher. However, the prices are well below the highs reached on Monday.

Two weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, one question is growing in the global oil market: how much crude will Asia buy from Moscow? According to a report by the Bloomberg news agency, there are tentative signs that a largely self-imposed buyers’ strike is continuing there as well.

This reluctance is reflected in the prices for crude oil from eastern Russia. Earlier this week, a shipment of Sokol crude oil from the Russian Far East, which is used mostly in Asia, was offered at a discount of up to $14 a barrel to the reference price in Dubai. At the beginning of March, the same type was still being offered at a premium of one dollar per barrel.

Bond yields remain high on the day after the ECB’s decision to taper its bond-buying program faster than expected. The yield on the ten-year German government bond, which is considered the pivotal point for the development of long-term capital market interest rates in the euro area, is still listed at 0.26 percent. In the course of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the yield slipped back into the red at the beginning of the month.

Renewable energy stocks are rising sharply

Some stocks from the renewable energies sector also remained in demand: such as the Siemens Gamesa parent Siemens Energy and the solar group SMA Solar: They rose by around five and almost six percent at the top of the Dax and SDax. The topic of discussion on the market remains the energy turnaround, which is being indirectly driven by the consequences of the war in Ukraine – and the goal of reducing dependence on Russian gas and oil.

Look at the individual values

Fraport/Lufthansa: The airport operator Fraport was able to more than triple the number of passengers in February compared to the same period of the previous year, which was characterized by the lockdown. Compared to February 2019 – i.e. before the outbreak of the corona pandemic – the numbers have more than halved. Shares in the MDax rose by around one and a half percent. The shares of the airline Lufthansa even went up by more than two and a half percent.

Lanxess: The specialty chemicals group ended the past year with a significant increase in earnings despite higher costs for energy and raw materials. Lanxess thus achieved its targets for the year. Shareholders are to receive a dividend of EUR 1.05, which is five cents higher. This boosted the course, which rose by almost five percent.

Adidas: The shares rose 2.3 percent after losing more than 6 percent the previous day. Analysts at HSBC upgraded the shares to “buy” from “hold”.

Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.