The Christmas season is particularly important for retailers.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin Despite rapidly rising prices, consumers go into the Christmas business with a growing desire to buy. The Nuremberg GfK market researchers forecast in their consumer climate barometer for November – the start of the Christmas season, which is so important for retailers – an increase of 0.5 to 0.9 points. A better value was last measured in April 2020 with 2.3 points.
By contrast, experts polled by Reuters had expected a decrease to minus 0.5 points. GfK expert Rolf Bürkl explains how increased inflation and an increasing desire to buy go together: “The German citizens obviously expect further price increases. That is why they consider it advisable to make purchases in order to avoid even higher prices. “
However, should the upward price trend continue, this would have a negative impact on the consumer climate. A fundamental recovery will then be delayed further, added Bürkl. According to a survey by the Munich-based Ifo Institute, more than every second retailer is aiming for price increases. “The pressure on prices remains,” said Ifo expert Klaus Wohlrabe to Reuters.
The prices of German manufacturers are climbing from record to record, mainly due to expensive energy – most recently in September they rose by 14.2 percent compared to the same month last year and thus more strongly than in almost 47 years.
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The producer prices are considered to be a leading indicator for the development of inflation. At 4.1 percent, it is currently higher than it has been since 1993 and, according to economists, could move towards five percent.
Income expectations are falling
In view of these prospects, it is not surprising that income expectations have now suffered a noticeable setback: the corresponding GfK barometer lost 14.1 points in October and fell to 23.3 points: “Higher prices reduce the purchasing power of incomes,” explained GfK -Expert Bürkl. “In addition, employees fear a loss of income due to short-time working because companies have to cut back their production due to interrupted supply chains.”
Economic expectations also clouded over. The GfK indicator calculated for this lost 1.9 points in October. At 46.6 points, however, it is still at a very high level, according to the Nuremberg market researchers.
The economic recovery from the corona crisis will be postponed more strongly into the next year. The federal government will significantly lower its growth forecast for 2021 to 2.6 percent, said two insiders of the Reuters news agency. The plus in 2022 should then be 4.1 percent – more than previously thought.
More: Federal government lowers growth forecast from 3.5 to 2.6 percent