Munich Florian Imbery, climate expert at the German Weather Service (DWD), is familiar with freak weather. But at the moment he is witnessing colleagues sitting in front of their data with their mouths open. Heat, floods, droughts, extreme weather events are the order of the day worldwide.
In Italy, meteorologists expect temperatures of more than 40 degrees in some large cities. In Spain, according to the national weather service Aemet, it should rise to 42 to 44 degrees by Wednesday. Some US states are hit even harder, with temperatures of up to 50 degrees. And northwest China saw a record 52.2 degrees Celsius on Sunday, state media reports.
At the same time, heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia has led to severe flooding with fatalities. It was not until May that heavy rains devastated parts of northern Italy. “We are currently seeing a simultaneity of extreme weather events of an intensity we have never experienced before,” says Imbery. The researchers “wouldn’t have expected much of this until the middle of the 21st century”. That is “terrifying”. One interpretation: climate change is not coming, it is there.
UN Secretary-General says climate change is out of control
The assessment of the meteorologist, who has a doctorate, falls into a summer that constantly ensures record values. According to preliminary data from US scientists, July 4 was the hottest day on record anywhere in the world. The average global temperature was 17.18 degrees, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer platform. The day before, the value had been 17.01 – that too was a high.
According to Imbery, global temperatures in July are the highest in 125,000 years, which researchers reveal, for example, analyzes of ice cores or sediments in oceans and on land. And marine regions are also breaking records. Since measurement data have been available, no higher temperatures have been recorded in the Atlantic. According to the DWD researcher, these are currently 21 degrees and thus more than one degree above the values expected for this time of year.
In New York, UN Secretary-General António Guterres found clear words for a chief diplomat: “The situation we are currently experiencing is proof that climate change is out of control.”
In part, the current development is related to “El Niño”. The weather phenomenon, which occurs about every four years, intensifies the temperature effects. Natural fluctuations also affect the Atlantic. However, without the global warming caused by climate change, the record values could not be explained either there or on land, says Imbery.
In addition, according to experts, the high temperatures in some marine regions exacerbate the weather extremes. “We put more energy into the climate system,” says the meteorologist, “90 percent of it is absorbed by the oceans.”
Warmer seas evaporate more water, which is transported to the continents. The large amount of water is sometimes discharged in heavy rain, as was the case recently in northern Italy. In addition, warmer seas change the dynamics of high and low pressure areas, so that longer warm weather phases last in Europe, for example.
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It’s also getting hotter in Germany. While in the 20th century temperatures above 40 degrees were only measured on July 27, 1983, since the year 2000 there have been more than 20 times in this range. Since 2018, with the exception of 2021, every summer in Germany has been “significantly too hot and too dry,” says Imbery.
Temperatures that exceed body temperature mean stress. Babies, the elderly or people with cardiovascular diseases are particularly at risk. If the humidity rises, the body is less able to cool itself through sweating. Last summer claimed 61,672 heat deaths in Europe.
Two tipping elements probably exceeded
The world-renowned climate scientist Anders Levermann, head of department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), is concerned about the changes in the climate. He considers it very likely that two out of about ten planetary tipping elements in the climate system have already been exceeded. Researchers describe the collapse of the tipping elements as a process that is becoming an unstoppable, self-perpetuating process that is sometimes irreversible.
“As early as 2014, studies were published showing that the West Antarctic ice sheet has tilted, and so far there is no scientific evidence to the contrary,” says the climate physicist. According to this, massive masses of glaciers would inexorably melt due to warmer water temperatures in West Antarctica, which would eventually raise sea levels by three and a half meters.
The industrial center in Southeast Asia is struggling with severe flooding.
(Photo: AP)
In all probability, we have already pushed the Greenland ice sheet past its tipping point.” The collapse of both ice sheets would raise the sea level by ten meters.
This means that coastal metropolises such as Hamburg or New York would no longer be over the sea. However, according to Levermann, this process will extend over several centuries in the case of West Antarctica and millennia in the case of the Greenland ice sheet.
But that’s no reason to relax: “The weather extremes that we are currently experiencing due to climate change and that are getting worse are far more drastic for us today than the consequences of collapsing tipping elements.”
Ten more rainy days reduce economic growth
At least for the economy, floods that destroy infrastructure are manageable. Roads, buildings and lines can be restored in case of doubt. In addition, industrialized countries are insured against flood and storm damage.
For Levermann, the “unpredictable effects on the economy and society” that cause unpredictable weather fluctuations such as droughts, heat waves or an increase in rainy days weigh more heavily.
In a study published last year in the journal Nature, Levermann’s working group showed that economic growth already falls when the number of rainy days and days with extreme rainfall increases. According to the scientists, the hardest hit are rich countries such as the USA, Japan and Germany. “Ten rainy days more means one percent less economic growth in Germany, which puts us under a lot of pressure,” says Levermann.
Weather phenomena are currently frightening even climate researchers.
The same applies to drought. The level of the Rhine recently fell to 105 centimetres. “Should the water levels over the course of the year be as low as in 2018 or 2022, that would impair the economic recovery,” economist Marc Schattenberg from Deutsche Bank Research told the Reuters news agency.
With rising temperatures, more people will have to leave their homes – the perfect breeding ground for right-wing populists. The global average temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels is currently 1.3 degrees. But the world is currently heading for an increase of 2.7 degrees by 2100.
Rebuilding the economy immediately and completely away from coal, gas and oil while adapting to heat, drought and heavy rain is now the top priority. There is no way around reducing emissions to zero in order to stabilize the climate. If that doesn’t succeed, Levermann sees democracy and the rule of law in danger. “Everything we do or don’t do now will determine our climate in the future, and will do so for centuries to come.”
With agency material
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