Moscow and Beijing want to push back US influence.
(Photo: via REUTERS)
Under the shock of the Ukraine war, romance with Russia has become an outsider position. But a transfigured view of China is still widespread. Many Europeans hope Beijing could play a constructive role in negotiations to end Russian aggression. The chances of that happening tend towards zero.
EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel will hardly be able to convince the Chinese leadership of a course correction at the video summit planned for this Friday.
China’s head of state Xi and Kremlin ruler Putin swore to each other shortly before the war began. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has not weakened the autocratic axis, it has strengthened it. The interests of China and Russia may not be congruent, but they do overlap on one point that is central to both regimes: Moscow and Beijing want to curb US influence.
Russia concentrates on the areas of the former Soviet Union, China on the Pacific region. 100 years ago, then US President Woodrow Wilson spoke of “making the world safe for democracy”. Putin and Xi are now aiming to do the same for autocracy.
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The Americans have been trying for years to prepare the EU for the new systemic conflict. But in Europe, and especially in Germany, there is a widespread belief that a third way with China is possible. If the new era proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and welcomed by Brussels is not to get stuck halfway, Germany and Europe must also fundamentally rethink their relationship with China.
Under its current leadership, the People’s Republic is not a partner but a strategic rival. This does not mean cutting off all trade relations. But it means that the EU must already have much stricter control over which technologies companies transfer to China.
More: Europe and China at a crossroads: The Ukraine war could lead to a break in economic ties