Hardly a day goes by without new sanctions being proposed against Russia. The goal of hitting Russia’s economy as hard as possible as long as Moscow does not stop its war of aggression against Ukraine is correct.
So it is understandable that the West is looking for new fields to put even more pressure on Russia. But expanding the fields of sanctions alone does not replace a sanctions strategy. In any case, it must be taken into account that sanctions always hit both sides – the person who is supposed to be hit by the penalties and the person who imposes them.
Therefore, one main premise should apply in all considerations: the consequences of the sanctions must hit the sanctioned harder than the states that impose them.
This also applies to the debate about a boycott of Russian crude oil and natural gas, which shows that it is wiser to first boycott the oil. From a German point of view, this step is not easy either, but it is manageable – and hits Russia even harder than stopping gas imports.
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The US has already stopped importing Russian oil. However, it’s easier for the Americans: They only get a maximum of eight percent of their oil requirements from the icy expanses of Siberia. In Germany, the proportion accounts for more than a third. In the case of natural gas, the Russian share is 55 percent, in the case of hard coal around 45 percent.
>> Read here: Why Japan wants to hold on to oil and gas projects in Russia
Oil sector is a real market with supply and demand
Undoubtedly, Russian oil is easier to replace than the other energy sources. In addition, the oil sector is almost a real market with supply and demand. Of course there is an export cartel in OPEC, but its power has long since eroded. Even the Opec alliance with Russia and others (Opec plus) does not have full access to the market.
Extracting shale oil or opening the floodgates of the 1.5 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves in Europe and the US is an important corrective.
The market is also stronger in the oil sector because the share of oil transport via tankers has so far been significantly higher than via pipelines. In the gas sector it has so far been the other way around. As a result, oil markets are more flexible and it is easier to switch oil from one supplier to another producer.
However, Germany is mainly tied to the Russian Druzhba (friendship) line. But decades of friendship with Russia ended after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. And that’s why the Druzhba oil route should also be shut down and Russian oil should be boycotted.
Binding to the Druzhba tube takes revenge
There is another argument in favor of an oil boycott: According to the local customs authorities, Russia made 179.9 billion dollars last year with the delivery of crude oil and oil products. For gas it was only $64.3 billion. So an oil boycott would hit Russia harder.
Because the link to the Druzhba tube is also taking its toll on Russia: Alternative deliveries, such as to China, can hardly be organized in this way. A new pipeline or many tankers would be needed.
Should China allow its tankers to go to Russia, large volumes of crude oil will be released in the Middle East. Russian oil can therefore be replaced, albeit with a slight delay and with high start-up costs.
It’s different with Russian natural gas: Here, the German supply is so geared towards the gigantic empire that it will certainly not be possible to replace it completely in the next 18 months. And production stops and bankruptcies forced by energy shortages, a heavy blow to Europe’s largest economy, are something nobody can seriously want at the moment. Not even Ukraine, which will still need a lot of financial help.
In the end, you should still have one trump card up your sleeve against Putin, and that would be the gas cut.
More: “How do we get Putin-free?” – Louder demands for sanctions against Nord Stream 1