According to analyst Akash Girimath, Bitcoin (BTC) will provide the biggest buying opportunity before $100,000. The analyst’s Bitcoin forecast says that BTC is in a major accumulation phase before it explodes to $100,000 or more. Again, according to the analyst’s forecast, the bull run seems to begin after a deep correction to the average purchase price of MicroStrategy to $29,860. Detail cryptocoin.com‘in.
What does the Bitcoin forecast predict?
Bitcoin price has been hovering around the psychological level of $50,000 for quite some time. Breaking an important support barrier could trigger a major collapse for BTC. On-chain metrics also show that long-term holders are booking profits in anticipation of a decline. Bitcoin price has been stuck between the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $51,782 and the 50-week SMA of $44,730 for about two weeks. Although BTC pierced the 50-week SMA on the December 4 crash, it quickly rebounded. As the sell-off continues, the major crypto is slowly slipping on its way to retest its vital support level. A weekly close of the 50-week SMA at $44,730 will mark a major shift in trend from bullish to bearish.
According to the analyst, this liquidity run could plunge BTC below $40,000, but this is a temporary move. In the long run, investors can wait for the leading crypto to consolidate here before heading for liquidity at $30,000 or below. Interestingly, this drop is necessary to trigger a stop loss below MicroStrategy’s average buy price of $29,860. The total value of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is worth $5.76 billion, which represents a profit of around 56%. It would be fair to assume that the average price of many whales or long-term holders who bet on BTC is roughly at the same level as MicroStrategy or slightly lower. As such, a drop below MicroStrategy’s average price of $29,860 would signal a ‘pain maximum’ scenario, where many traders might panic and sell to avoid losses.
While this outlook is speculative, it would make sense for BTC, especially from a market maker’s point of view, as supply remains below the multiple wicks present around the $30,000 psychological level. In total, this move represents a 36% collapse from the current position. Although unlikely, the worst-case scenario could be for BTC to drop by 48%, allowing it to retest the 200-week SMA at $23,935.
Also, any short-term buying pressure is likely to face major upside headwinds as a large cluster of underwater investors is available from $55,302 to $67,413. Only a large increase in buying pressure can overcome the selling pressure that investors in this cluster are trying to deal with. Therefore, the logical conclusion is that BTC’s outlook favors the bears.
BTC prediction from analyst
The supply shock chart supports the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. It shows that long-term owners are booking profits. Willy Woo, a popular analyst, said of his Bitcoin prediction:
Long-term owners are selling and taking profits, but as a cohort they remain in the zone of highest accumulation. Bear markets coincide with the time these holders divest their cryptocurrencies, despite market fears, we are not structurally prepared for a bear market.
Further supporting a sell-off is the 0.83% drop in the number of whales holding between 100 and 100,000 BTC. Roughly 136 whales have vacated their positions, as seen in the supply shock chart above.
The only chart that shows hope and offers the possibility of a short-term bullish outlook is the Market Cap – Realized Value (MVRV) pattern, which hovers around -1.8%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors who bought BTC in the past year. A negative value indicates short-term holders are selling and is often referred to as the “zone of opportunity.” This is where medium and long-term owners accumulate. Therefore, in a bullish high, there is a possibility that BTC could see a potential buying frenzy pushing it to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,776 or reach the $57,845 resistance barrier.
While the scenario outlined above is undoubtedly bearish for short-term investors, it will provide long-term investors with an excellent buying opportunity. A retest of MicroStrategy’s average purchase price at $29,860 will be where investors can expect a bearish reversal. The resulting uptrend will likely push the Bitcoin price to an all-time high of $100,000. However, if Bitcoin price decides to bypass the collapse and produce a weekly close above the current all-time high of $69,000, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, investors can expect BTC to head towards other psychological hurdles like $70,000 or $80,000.
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